Santa Clara vs. Villanova : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Nov 27, 2011 6:30 pm - Anaheim, CA (Neutral Site)
Odds: Villanova by 8.5, Total Points: 142

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 62.4
Field Goal % 27.3% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 27.3 21.5
2 Point Shooting % 29.6% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 40.9
3 Point Shooting % 24.9% 36.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 16.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 72.8%
Ball Control SCLAR VILA
Rebounds 32.1 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 31.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 14.0
Turnovers 17.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 1.1 4.9
Steals 5.7 7.6
Fouls 15.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCLAR VILA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SCLAR VILA
2 Point Attempt 33.6% 25.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 48.2%
Player Fouled 18.8% 22.1%
Turnover 24.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCLAR VILA
Shot Blocked 7.9% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 37.4%