Boise State at Colorado St : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jan 17, 2012 10:00 pm - Fort Collins, CO
Odds: Colorado St. by 7, Total Points: 149

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU COST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting BSU COST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 59.7
Field Goal % 44.7% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 28.7 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 30.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 16.4
Free Throw % 74.4% 72.6%
Ball Control BSU COST
Rebounds 39.2 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.5 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.4
Turnovers 10.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.1
Steals 4.9 4.9
Fouls 15.5 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU COST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with BSU COST
2 Point Attempt 37.0% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 34.5% 24.2%
Player Fouled 21.5% 21.2%
Turnover 14.8% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU COST
Shot Blocked 5.3% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 19.6%