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Boise State at Fresno St

  Monday Jan 2, 2012 - 10:00 pm - Fresno, CA | Odds: Boise St. by 2, Total Points: 138.5 | Team Pages: BSU | FRES

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU FRES
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting BSU FRES
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 49.5
Field Goal % 45.7% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 40.0% 29.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 18.0
Free Throw % 72.1% 69.0%

Ball Control BSU FRES
Rebounds 33.7 28.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 21.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 6.7
Turnovers 9.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.9
Steals 5.4 5.4
Fouls 15.7 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU FRES
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with BSU FRES
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 22.0%
Player Fouled 26.4% 24.3%
Turnover 15.4% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.4%

Odds Per Shot Taken BSU FRES
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 21.3%