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Duke at Florida St

  Thursday Feb 23, 2012 - 7:00 pm - Tallahassee, FL | Odds: Duke by 1, Total Points: 138 | Team Pages: DUKE | FSU

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE FSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting DUKE FSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 52.8
Field Goal % 46.7% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 12.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 28.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 16.1
Free Throw % 70.6% 67.3%

Ball Control DUKE FSU
Rebounds 35.4 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.6
Turnovers 9.7 14.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.6
Steals 6.8 4.4
Fouls 15.1 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE FSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with DUKE FSU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 16.2%
Player Fouled 25.3% 22.2%
Turnover 14.3% 21.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 9.9%

Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE FSU
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 28.8%