Duke at Florida St : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Feb 23, 2012 7:00 pm - Tallahassee, FL
Odds: Duke by 1, Total Points: 138

More Games From Feb 23, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE FSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DUKE FSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 71.8 71.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 48.0 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 36.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 17.0
Free Throw % 71.0% 68.0%
Ball Control DUKE FSU
Rebounds 50.6 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 21.1 12.7
Turnovers 12.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.3
Steals 5.7 6.2
Fouls 15.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +1.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE FSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DUKE FSU
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 28.3%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.3%
Turnover 16.0% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE FSU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 48.1% 30.2%