Army vs. Citadel : Box Score Simulation

Saturday Nov 12, 2011 8:30 pm - Colorado Springs, CO (Neutral Site)
Odds: Army by 2, Total Points: 145.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARMY CTDL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ARMY CTDL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 66.4 72.4
Field Goal % 50.3% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 46.2
2 Point Shooting % 59.1% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 31.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 21.1
Free Throw % 69.9% 74.0%
Ball Control ARMY CTDL
Rebounds 47.4 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 33.7 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 10.3
Turnovers 14.8 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.1
Steals 4.0 7.9
Fouls 17.2 20.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARMY CTDL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ARMY CTDL
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 27.0%
Player Fouled 24.6% 20.2%
Turnover 17.4% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 4.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARMY CTDL
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 23.4%