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Saint Louis at Dayton

  Wednesday Jan 4, 2012 - 8:00 pm - Dayton, OH | Odds: Saint Louis by 3.5, Total Points: 123 | Team Pages: STL | DAY

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring STL DAY
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting STL DAY
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 47.3 43.6
Field Goal % 41.4% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 27.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 61.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 36.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 26.4
Free Throw % 64.2% 69.8%

Ball Control STL DAY
Rebounds 26.8 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 5.6
Turnovers 14.4 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.9
Steals 4.1 7.5
Fouls 20.2 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STL DAY
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with STL DAY
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 23.2%
Player Fouled 23.4% 30.9%
Turnover 22.1% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 6.2%

Odds Per Shot Taken STL DAY
Shot Blocked 6.8% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 21.5%