Mercer vs. Holy Cross: Box Score Simulation

Monday Dec 2, 2019 11:00 am - Boca Raton, FL (Neutral Site)
Odds: Mercer by 8.5, Total Points: 151

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER HC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MER HC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 62.2
Field Goal % 45.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 39.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 17.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 59.8%
Ball Control MER HC
Rebounds 41.2 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 9.6
Turnovers 10.1 12.4
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.3
Steals 8.5 5.9
Fouls 13.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER HC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MER HC
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 19.9%
Player Fouled 20.2% 18.1%
Turnover 13.4% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER HC
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 25.5%