N Mex State at San Jose St: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 19, 2012 10:30 pm - San Jose, CA
Odds: New Mexico St. by 8, Total Points: 150

More Games From Jan 19, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting NMSU SJSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 65.8 69.8
Field Goal % 27.2% 31.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 43.2
2 Point Shooting % 32.8% 37.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 19.5% 21.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 19.4
Free Throw % 72.7% 66.0%
Ball Control NMSU SJSU
Rebounds 44.6 56.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 42.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 14.2
Turnovers 9.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 3.5 4.9
Fouls 16.7 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU SJSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with NMSU SJSU
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 28.6%
Player Fouled 21.3% 21.5%
Turnover 12.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 4.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU SJSU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 14.3% 27.4%