Utah St at Air Force: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jan 7, 2020 11:00 pm - Colorado Springs, CO
Odds: Utah St. by 7.5, Total Points: 146

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU AFA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USU AFA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 49.9 54.2
Field Goal % 53.4% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 61.4% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 14.6
Free Throw % 72.5% 68.7%
Ball Control USU AFA
Rebounds 35.1 26.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 19.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 6.7
Turnovers 9.3 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.3
Steals 5.7 5.6
Fouls 14.3 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU AFA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USU AFA
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 32.8%
Player Fouled 26.1% 21.4%
Turnover 14.0% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU AFA
Shot Blocked 4.4% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 20.1%