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Lg Beach St vs. New Mexico

  Thursday Mar 15, 2012 - 4:20 pm - Portland, OR (Neutral Site) | Odds: New Mexico by 4, Total Points: 138.5 | Team Pages: LBSU | NMEX

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LBSU NMEX
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting LBSU NMEX
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 48.7
Field Goal % 37.6% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 30.1 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 29.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 21.2
Free Throw % 70.8% 67.2%

Ball Control LBSU NMEX
Rebounds 29.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 10.4
Turnovers 11.0 13.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.1
Steals 5.9 5.3
Fouls 17.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LBSU NMEX
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with LBSU NMEX
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 22.4%
Player Fouled 23.3% 25.8%
Turnover 16.7% 20.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 9.0%

Odds Per Shot Taken LBSU NMEX
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 33.9%