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Lg Beach St vs. New Mexico : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Mar 15, 2012 4:20 pm - Portland, OR (Neutral Site)
Odds: New Mexico by 4, Total Points: 138.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting LBSU NMEX
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 50.9
Field Goal % 42.6% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 27.3
Free Throw % 69.2% 73.6%
Ball Control LBSU NMEX
Rebounds 32.5 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 8.5
Turnovers 10.4 15.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.5
Steals 7.7 4.1
Fouls 21.2 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LBSU NMEX
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with LBSU NMEX
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 19.7%
Player Fouled 24.8% 28.4%
Turnover 13.9% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LBSU NMEX
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 28.3%