Golden State at LA Lakers : Box Score Simulation

Friday Jan 6, 2012 10:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles by 10.5, Total Points: 185.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSW LAL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting GSW LAL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 92.0 84.2
Field Goal % 47.5% 38.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 58.0 63.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.8% 41.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 34.0 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 28.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 26.7
Free Throw % 76.6% 78.7%
Ball Control GSW LAL
Rebounds 55.4 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 41.6 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 12.6
Turnovers 11.0 15.6
Blocked Shots 7.0 3.7
Steals 7.9 6.7
Fouls 17.4 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSW LAL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with GSW LAL
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 53.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 17.9%
Player Fouled 17.0% 16.9%
Turnover 10.7% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSW LAL
Shot Blocked 4.5% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 23.2%