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Portland at Indiana : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Mar 13, 2012 7:00 pm - Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Indiana by 3.5, Total Points: 191

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR IND
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting POR IND
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 84.5
Field Goal % 42.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 55.5 63.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 29.9 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 25.7
Free Throw % 76.0% 77.6%
Ball Control POR IND
Rebounds 51.1 50.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 11.8
Turnovers 13.8 12.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.9
Steals 6.0 7.6
Fouls 19.8 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR IND
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with POR IND
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 56.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 18.2%
Player Fouled 18.0% 19.7%
Turnover 13.7% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR IND
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 24.0%