Okla City at Golden State : Box Score Simulation

Friday Jan 27, 2012 10:30 pm - Oakland, CA
Odds: Oklahoma City by 4.5, Total Points: 199

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC GSW
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting OKC GSW
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 89.1 88.0
Field Goal % 44.2% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 68.2 61.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 47.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 24.3
Free Throw % 79.0% 76.1%
Ball Control OKC GSW
Rebounds 53.2 47.7
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 35.1
Rebounds - Offensive 16.9 12.6
Turnovers 16.0 14.1
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.9
Steals 8.2 10.0
Fouls 18.8 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC GSW
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with OKC GSW
2 Point Attempt 55.5% 52.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 22.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 18.2%
Turnover 15.5% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC GSW
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 25.8%