Okla City at Phoenix : Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Apr 18, 2012 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Oklahoma City by 4, Total Points: 209

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC PHX
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting OKC PHX
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 82.6 88.3
Field Goal % 50.4% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 57.9 63.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 30.3 24.7
Free Throw % 78.5% 75.0%
Ball Control OKC PHX
Rebounds 54.1 45.7
Rebounds - Defensive 40.8 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 14.5
Turnovers 14.2 13.9
Blocked Shots 6.2 3.4
Steals 8.0 7.4
Fouls 19.5 20.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC PHX
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with OKC PHX
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 21.1%
Player Fouled 20.2% 19.1%
Turnover 13.9% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC PHX
Shot Blocked 3.9% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 26.2%