Phoenix at Okla City: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Dec 31, 2011 8:00 pm - Oklahoma City, OK
Odds: Oklahoma City by 11.5, Total Points: 201

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO OKC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PHO OKC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 91.9
Field Goal % 47.1% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 52.0 55.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 38.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 21.2
Free Throw % 79.6% 82.8%
Ball Control PHO OKC
Rebounds 51.9 45.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 34.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 10.7
Turnovers 15.6 10.5
Blocked Shots 5.5 6.0
Steals 6.1 8.4
Fouls 16.7 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO OKC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PHO OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 31.1%
Player Fouled 17.3% 16.1%
Turnover 15.1% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO OKC
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 21.4%