Phoenix at LA Lakers : Box Score Simulation

Friday Feb 17, 2012 10:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles by 8, Total Points: 186.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX LAL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PHX LAL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 81.2
Field Goal % 44.6% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 60.3 56.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 30.2 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 35.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 27.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 78.7%
Ball Control PHX LAL
Rebounds 52.7 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.6 39.1
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 9.6
Turnovers 12.3 15.3
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.1
Steals 8.0 7.0
Fouls 18.5 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX LAL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PHX LAL
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 21.6%
Player Fouled 18.9% 18.0%
Turnover 11.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX LAL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 20.0%