Phoenix at Miami : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Mar 20, 2012 7:30 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Miami by 10.5, Total Points: 200

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PHX MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 83.6 78.2
Field Goal % 41.4% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 59.8 58.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 33.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 25.7
Free Throw % 75.6% 74.7%
Ball Control PHX MIA
Rebounds 45.7 49.4
Rebounds - Defensive 34.4 39.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.6
Turnovers 14.0 13.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.0
Steals 6.9 7.2
Fouls 19.6 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PHX MIA
2 Point Attempt 53.7% 54.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 17.7%
Player Fouled 16.6% 20.0%
Turnover 14.3% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX MIA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 21.8%