Phoenix at Miami : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Mar 20, 2012 7:30 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Miami by 10.5, Total Points: 200

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PHX MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 80.5
Field Goal % 39.3% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 60.6 60.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 32.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 27.4
Free Throw % 75.2% 72.5%
Ball Control PHX MIA
Rebounds 50.8 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 41.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 9.9
Turnovers 14.8 13.5
Blocked Shots 4.6 6.0
Steals 7.4 7.3
Fouls 20.3 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PHX MIA
2 Point Attempt 52.2% 54.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 17.8%
Player Fouled 17.8% 20.3%
Turnover 14.8% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX MIA
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 21.0%