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Houston at LA Lakers : Box Score Simulation

Friday Apr 6, 2012 10:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles by 6, Total Points: 195

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU LAL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting HOU LAL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 83.3 84.3
Field Goal % 48.1% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 52.7 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 30.6 26.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 32.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 29.7 27.4
Free Throw % 69.1% 78.5%
Ball Control HOU LAL
Rebounds 51.4 48.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 13.6
Turnovers 12.7 13.9
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.8
Steals 8.2 7.3
Fouls 18.8 19.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU LAL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with HOU LAL
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 22.9%
Player Fouled 19.7% 18.6%
Turnover 12.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU LAL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 26.2%