Toronto at Philadelphia: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 7, 2012 8:00 pm - Philadelphia, PA
Odds: Philadelphia by 10, Total Points: 187.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR PHI
Points 109.2 106.5
Total Points   215.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 52.9
Points From 3-Pointers 36.0 35.8
Points From Free Throws 20.7 17.8
Shooting TOR PHI
Field Goals Made 38.2 38.4
Field Goals Attempted 85.1 87.2
Field Goal % 44.9% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 26.4
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 31.8 35.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 20.7 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 23.7
Free Throw % 80.5% 75.3%
Ball Control TOR PHI
Rebounds 48.4 52.6
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 12.8
Turnovers 13.1 14.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 6.1
Steals 6.8 6.9
Fouls 19.4 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: Philadelphia

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR PHI
Total Possessions 103.3
Effective Scoring Chances 99.4 101.8
% of Possessions with TOR PHI
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 30.1%
Player Fouled 18.7% 18.7%
Turnover 12.7% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR PHI
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.9% 24.7%