Denver at Washington: Box Score Simulation

Friday Jan 20, 2012 7:00 pm - Washington, DC
Odds: Denver by 7.5, Total Points: 205.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN WAS
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DEN WAS
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 90.9
Field Goal % 52.4% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 62.8 59.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 28.7 31.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 33.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 21.2
Free Throw % 76.5% 76.3%
Ball Control DEN WAS
Rebounds 54.4 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 41.1 32.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 10.9
Turnovers 11.7 11.4
Blocked Shots 6.3 4.4
Steals 6.6 6.4
Fouls 15.6 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN WAS
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DEN WAS
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 26.9%
Player Fouled 16.4% 15.1%
Turnover 11.4% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN WAS
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 20.9%