Denver at Houston : Box Score Simulation

Monday Apr 16, 2012 8:00 pm - Houston, TX
Odds: Houston by 4.5, Total Points: 207

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN HOU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DEN HOU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 85.3 87.8
Field Goal % 45.2% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 60.5 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 35.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 28.4 23.3
Free Throw % 75.2% 75.5%
Ball Control DEN HOU
Rebounds 51.0 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 11.0
Turnovers 14.4 12.6
Blocked Shots 4.2 6.0
Steals 7.1 7.3
Fouls 17.4 20.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN HOU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DEN HOU
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 29.4%
Player Fouled 19.7% 16.9%
Turnover 14.0% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN HOU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 22.6%