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Denver at Houston

  Monday Apr 16, 2012 - 8:00 pm - Houston, TX | Odds: Houston by 4.5, Total Points: 207 | Team Pages: DEN | HOU

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN HOU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting DEN HOU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 80.5
Field Goal % 43.1% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 62.9 50.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 29.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 34.0
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.0%

Ball Control DEN HOU
Rebounds 51.0 51.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.6 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 15.4 12.6
Turnovers 14.3 14.8
Blocked Shots 4.9 6.1
Steals 8.1 8.1
Fouls 22.8 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN HOU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with DEN HOU
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 25.3%
Player Fouled 18.8% 22.1%
Turnover 13.8% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.9%

Odds Per Shot Taken DEN HOU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 26.1%