Denver at LA Lakers : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 8, 2012 10:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles by 6, Total Points: 197

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN LAL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DEN LAL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 88.9 88.8
Field Goal % 46.7% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 57.4 59.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 31.5 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 36.0%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 22.7
Free Throw % 77.5% 72.7%
Ball Control DEN LAL
Rebounds 51.0 49.3
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 11.9
Turnovers 13.1 13.5
Blocked Shots 5.5 4.5
Steals 7.4 6.8
Fouls 17.8 19.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN LAL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DEN LAL
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 25.2%
Player Fouled 19.1% 17.2%
Turnover 12.7% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN LAL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 23.7%