Denver at LA Lakers : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 8, 2012 10:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles by 6, Total Points: 197

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN LAL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DEN LAL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 88.5
Field Goal % 45.9% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 58.5 60.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 28.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 32.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 20.1
Free Throw % 74.7% 69.9%
Ball Control DEN LAL
Rebounds 52.7 48.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 11.6
Turnovers 14.7 15.1
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.6
Steals 7.6 8.2
Fouls 15.9 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN LAL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DEN LAL
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 24.0%
Player Fouled 18.7% 15.3%
Turnover 14.2% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN LAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 22.8%