Dallas at Phoenix : Box Score Simulation

Monday Jan 30, 2012 9:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Dallas by 5, Total Points: 184.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL PHX
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DAL PHX
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 86.1 82.4
Field Goal % 46.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 54.0 53.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 24.0
Free Throw % 76.7% 75.2%
Ball Control DAL PHX
Rebounds 46.8 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 39.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.2
Turnovers 10.4 14.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.5
Steals 7.3 5.8
Fouls 19.1 21.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL PHX
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DAL PHX
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 25.4%
Player Fouled 21.1% 19.0%
Turnover 10.4% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL PHX
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 18.6% 21.2%