Dallas at Miami: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 4, 2021 8:00 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Dallas by 1, Total Points: 215.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 98.0 82.2
Field Goal % 31.0% 55.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 49.1 52.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 68.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 48.9 29.7
3 Point Shooting % 22.6% 32.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 19.3
Free Throw % 81.5% 76.2%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 44.6 64.0
Rebounds - Defensive 33.2 57.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 6.3
Turnovers 8.2 16.0
Blocked Shots 1.3 1.5
Steals 7.7 7.4
Fouls 23.7 20.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 42.2% 26.8%
Player Fouled 20.2% 22.8%
Turnover 7.8% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 1.9% 1.3%
Offensive Rebound 16.5% 15.9%