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Dallas at Miami: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 4, 2021 8:00 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Dallas by 1, Total Points: 215.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 82.8
Field Goal % 46.0% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 45.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 43.3 37.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 36.0%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 22.6
Free Throw % 76.9% 79.1%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 48.2 46.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.3
Turnovers 12.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.9
Steals 5.6 7.2
Fouls 18.3 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 39.3% 33.9%
Player Fouled 18.4% 18.6%
Turnover 12.4% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.6% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 19.7%