New York at Miami : Box Score Simulation

Wednesday May 9, 2012 7:00 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Miami by 11.5, Total Points: 183

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until December 1; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring NYK MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting NYK MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 86.3 80.4
Field Goal % 37.3% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 65.5 63.2
2 Point Shooting % 39.8% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 27.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 32.4
Free Throw % 81.0% 73.4%
Ball Control NYK MIA
Rebounds 52.1 54.3
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 41.4
Rebounds - Offensive 14.0 12.9
Turnovers 11.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.2 6.1
Steals 5.0 5.6
Fouls 21.4 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NYK MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with NYK MIA
2 Point Attempt 58.2% 56.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 15.4%
Player Fouled 16.1% 22.2%
Turnover 12.3% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NYK MIA
Shot Blocked 7.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 25.3%