Miami at Boston : Box Score Simulation

Friday Jun 1, 2012 8:30 pm - Boston, MA
Odds: Boston by 2.5, Total Points: 178.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 84.2
Field Goal % 45.7% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 58.3 56.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 27.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 25.0
Free Throw % 70.8% 81.7%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 51.1 48.4
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 10.9
Turnovers 12.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 6.3 4.0
Steals 6.5 6.0
Fouls 19.0 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 24.7%
Player Fouled 17.4% 19.2%
Turnover 12.1% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 22.1%