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Memphis at Atlanta : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Feb 2, 2012 7:30 pm - Atlanta, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 4.5, Total Points: 183

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM ATL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MEM ATL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 84.9 76.8
Field Goal % 42.9% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 54.3 49.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 30.6 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 33.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 29.9
Free Throw % 78.9% 73.6%
Ball Control MEM ATL
Rebounds 48.6 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 37.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 11.1
Turnovers 12.5 14.4
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.0
Steals 7.9 6.4
Fouls 22.0 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM ATL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MEM ATL
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 24.2%
Player Fouled 18.1% 22.4%
Turnover 12.8% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM ATL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 23.6%