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Boston at Atlanta : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 1, 2012 7:30 pm - Atlanta, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 4.5, Total Points: 172.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS ATL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting BOS ATL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 82.3
Field Goal % 43.9% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 47.7 56.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 38.3 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 31.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 28.4
Free Throw % 80.1% 73.6%
Ball Control BOS ATL
Rebounds 47.3 51.9
Rebounds - Defensive 36.4 39.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 12.6
Turnovers 13.4 14.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.8
Steals 8.1 7.2
Fouls 20.5 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS ATL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with BOS ATL
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 33.6% 22.8%
Player Fouled 17.2% 20.2%
Turnover 13.2% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS ATL
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 25.7%