5 Value Picks For NFL Week 13 Pick’em and Confidence Pools (2020)
NFL Week 13 features a lot of bigger favorites, so the hunt for value picks primarily needs to focus on closer matchups showing public bias.
The Rams will go to Arizona with a chance to separate from the Cardinals in the NFC West (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)
On the heels of a rare Wednesday NFL game and with no Thursday night game being played, pick’em pool players have a few curveballs to deal with this week.
As you start to think about your NFL Week 13 picks, the analysis below will help you make smarter decisions in your private NFL office pool or in online contests like ESPN Pigskin Pick’em, Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, and CBS Sports Football Pick’em.
The foundation of this pick analysis is the Data Grid feature of our Football Pick’em Picks product, the only tool on the market that customizes picks to maximize your edge in football pick’em and confidence pools.
Recap of Last Week’s Picks
The value picks we highlighted stayed hot again in Week 12, going 4-1, including having the Patriots and Falcons as underdogs as value plays.
The only loss was the favored Colts losing to the Titans, while the Giants, Texans, Patriots and Falcons all won. In those same five games, the public averaged just 2.1 wins.
And although the value underdog picks didn’t make sense for all types of pools, subscriber pick recommendations in our Football Pick’em Picks product again outperformed the public, despite a wild week with lots of close calls and upsets.
Five NFL Week 13 Picks You Must Consider
As usual, we’ve assessed the Week 13 picks below according to where they fall on the risk vs. reward spectrum. This week features a lot of larger favorites where both win odds and pick popularity are going to be high.
That means other games, where there is more disagreement and where the chances of an upset are greater, will likely decide the week’s top scores .
Note: Point spreads, win odds and pick popularity data can shift as game day nears, and it’s quite possible that one or more of the teams below will no longer be a good value pick later in the week.
1. Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona)
Point Spread: -3
TR Win Odds: 55%
Pick Popularity: 38%
Category: Value Favorite
The Rams are the betting favorite by a field goal, but the public is on Arizona early. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was limited by a shoulder injury last week against New England, though he maintains it has no impact.
Whatever the reason, Murray has rushed for only 46 total yards the last two games, and has not scored a rushing touchdown in the last two losses. When Murray runs for under 50 yards, Arizona is 1-3 this year, with the lone win coming against the Jets.
Our models agree that the Rams are the favorite here, so in this case sticking with the betting favorite provides value as the majority of the public is going with the underdog in this NFC West matchup.
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