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Fiesta Bowl Playoff Semifinal: Miami vs. Mississippi: Over/Under Analysis

Thursday Jan 8, 2026 7:30 pm - Glendale, AZ (Neutral Site)
Odds: Miami by 3, Total Points: 52.5

Matchup Menu: MIA vs. MISS

More Games From Bowl Week

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 52.5	Official TR Pick	51% odds to go over
Over 52.5	Decision Tree	51% odds to go over
Under 52.5	Similar Games	57% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MIA	MISS
Season	7-9-0	8-7-0
vs Conference	3-5-0	6-3-0
Streak	Ov 2	Ov 2
Last 5	2-3-0	3-2-0
Last 10	5-5-0	5-5-0
Home	5-4-0	3-6-0
Away	2-5-0	5-1-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
08/31	Home	Notre Dame	50.5	27-24	Over	+0.5
09/06	Home	Beth-Cook	64.5	45-3	Under	-16.5
09/13	Home	S Florida	56.0	49-12	Over	+5.0
09/20	Home	Florida	51.0	26-7	Under	-18.0
10/04	Away	Florida St	54.0	28-22	Under	-4.0
10/17	Home	Louisville	49.5	21-24	Under	-4.5
10/25	Home	Stanford	45.5	42-7	Over	+3.5
11/01	Away	SMU	50.5	20-26	Under	-4.5
11/08	Home	Syracuse	47.0	38-10	Over	+1.0
11/15	Home	NC State	54.5	41-7	Under	-6.5
11/22	Away	Virginia Tech	49.0	34-17	Over	+2.0
11/29	Away	Pittsburgh	49.0	38-7	Under	-4.0
12/20	Away	Texas A&M	48.5	10-3	Under	-35.5
12/31	Neutral	Ohio St	39.5	24-14	Under	-1.5
01/08	Neutral	Mississippi	52.5	31-27	Over	+5.5
01/19	Home	Indiana	46.5	21-27	Over	+1.5

Mississippi Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
08/30	Home	Georgia St	60.5	63-7	Over	+9.5
09/06	Away	Kentucky	50.0	30-23	Over	+3.0
09/13	Home	Arkansas	59.5	41-35	Over	+16.5
09/20	Home	Tulane	61.0	45-10	Under	-6.0
09/27	Home	LSU	57.0	24-19	Under	-14.0
10/11	Home	Washington St	59.0	24-21	Under	-14.0
10/18	Away	Georgia	57.0	35-43	Over	+21.0
10/25	Away	Oklahoma	52.5	34-26	Over	+7.5
11/01	Home	South Carolina	55.5	30-14	Under	-11.5
11/08	Home	The Citadel	63.5	49-0	Under	-14.5
11/15	Home	Florida	53.5	34-24	Over	+4.5
11/28	Away	Mississippi St	63.0	38-19	Under	-6.0
12/20	Home	Tulane	57.5	41-10	Under	-6.5
01/01	Neutral	Georgia	53.5	39-34	Over	+19.5
01/08	Neutral	Miami	52.5	27-31	Over	+5.5