Fiesta Bowl Playoff Semifinal: Miami vs. Mississippi: Point Spread Analysis
Thursday Jan 8, 2026 7:30 pm -
Glendale, AZ
(Neutral Site)
Odds:
Miami (FL) by 3,
Total Points:
52.5
Matchup Menu: MIA vs. MISS
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Model | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Miami -3.0 | Official TR Pick | Miami 52% odds to cover |
| Miami -3.0 | Power Ratings | Miami 58% odds to cover |
| Miami -3.0 | Similar Games | Miami 58% odds to cover |
| Miami -3.0 | Decision Tree | Miami 52% odds to cover |
| Miami -3.0 | Predictive Ratings | Miami 52% odds to cover |
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | MIA | adv | MISS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 4-1-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| vs Conference | 2-1-0 | 2-1-0 | |
| Streak | W2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 4-1-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-1-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Home | 2-0-0 | 1-1-0 | |
| Away | 2-1-0 | 1-2-0 |
Miami Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31 | Home | Notre Dame | +2.5 | W by 3 | +5.5 |
| 09/06 | Home | Beth-Cook | -53.5 | W by 42 | -11.5 |
| 09/13 | Home | S Florida | -17.5 | W by 37 | +19.5 |
| 09/20 | Home | Florida | -8.5 | W by 19 | +10.5 |
| 10/04 | Away | Florida St | -3.5 | W by 6 | +2.5 |
| 10/17 | Home | Louisville | -10.0 | L by 3 | -13.0 |
| 10/25 | Home | Stanford | -28.5 | W by 35 | +6.5 |
| 11/01 | Away | SMU | -8.5 | L by 6 | -14.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | Syracuse | -28.5 | W by 28 | -0.5 |
| 11/15 | Home | NC State | -16.0 | W by 34 | +18.0 |
| 11/22 | Away | Virginia Tech | -17.5 | W by 17 | -0.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | W by 31 | +24.5 |
| 12/20 | Away | Texas A&M | +3.0 | W by 7 | +10.0 |
| 12/31 | Neutral | Ohio St | +7.5 | W by 10 | +17.5 |
| 01/08 | Neutral | Mississippi | -3.0 | W by 4 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | Home | Indiana | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
Mississippi Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30 | Home | Georgia St | -33.5 | W by 56 | +22.5 |
| 09/06 | Away | Kentucky | -8.0 | W by 7 | -1.0 |
| 09/13 | Home | Arkansas | -3.5 | W by 6 | +2.5 |
| 09/20 | Home | Tulane | -12.0 | W by 35 | +23.0 |
| 09/27 | Home | LSU | -2.5 | W by 5 | +2.5 |
| 10/11 | Home | Washington St | -33.0 | W by 3 | -30.0 |
| 10/18 | Away | Georgia | +7.0 | L by 8 | -1.0 |
| 10/25 | Away | Oklahoma | +5.5 | W by 8 | +13.5 |
| 11/01 | Home | South Carolina | -12.5 | W by 16 | +3.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | The Citadel | -51.5 | W by 49 | -2.5 |
| 11/15 | Home | Florida | -10.5 | W by 10 | -0.5 |
| 11/28 | Away | Mississippi St | -7.0 | W by 19 | +12.0 |
| 12/20 | Home | Tulane | -17.0 | W by 31 | +14.0 |
| 01/01 | Neutral | Georgia | +6.0 | W by 5 | +11.0 |
| 01/08 | Neutral | Miami | +3.0 | L by 4 | -1.0 |