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Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri: Over/Under Analysis

Saturday Dec 27, 2025 7:30 pm - Jacksonville, FL (Neutral Site)
Odds: Missouri by 4, Total Points: 43.5

Matchup Menu: UVA vs. MIZZ

More Games From Bowl Week

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Under 43.5	Official TR Pick	50% odds to go under
Under 43.5	Decision Tree	50% odds to go under
Over 43.5	Similar Games	51% odds to go over

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	UVA	MIZZ
Season	4-9-1	7-6-0
vs Conference	3-7-0	4-4-0
Streak	Un 9	Un 3
Last 5	0-5-0	2-3-0
Last 10	1-9-0	4-6-0
Home	3-3-1	7-1-0
Away	1-6-0	0-5-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Virginia Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
08/30	Home	Coastal Car	55.0	48-7	Push	0.0
09/06	Away	NC State	53.5	31-35	Over	+12.5
09/13	Home	Wm & Mary	53.5	55-16	Over	+17.5
09/20	Home	Stanford	48.0	48-20	Over	+20.0
09/26	Home	Florida St	59.5	46-38	Over	+24.5
10/04	Away	Louisville	60.5	30-27	Under	-3.5
10/18	Home	Washington St	56.0	22-20	Under	-14.0
10/25	Away	North Carolina	50.5	17-16	Under	-17.5
11/01	Away	California	52.5	31-21	Under	-0.5
11/08	Home	Wake Forest	48.5	9-16	Under	-23.5
11/15	Away	Duke	59.5	34-17	Under	-8.5
11/29	Home	Virginia Tech	52.5	27-7	Under	-18.5
12/06	Neutral	Duke	58.5	20-27	Under	-11.5
12/27	Neutral	Missouri	43.5	13-7	Under	-23.5

Missouri Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
08/28	Home	Central Ark	53.5	61-6	Over	+13.5
09/06	Home	Kansas	50.5	42-31	Over	+22.5
09/13	Home	Louisiana	47.5	52-10	Over	+14.5
09/20	Home	South Carolina	48.5	29-20	Over	+0.5
09/27	Home	UMass	57.0	42-6	Under	-9.0
10/11	Home	Alabama	50.5	24-27	Over	+0.5
10/18	Away	Auburn	43.5	23-17	Under	-3.5
10/25	Away	Vanderbilt	52.5	10-17	Under	-25.5
11/08	Home	Texas A&M	48.0	17-38	Over	+7.0
11/15	Home	Mississippi St	50.5	49-27	Over	+25.5
11/22	Away	Oklahoma	42.5	6-17	Under	-19.5
11/29	Away	Arkansas	54.5	31-17	Under	-6.5
12/27	Neutral	Virginia	43.5	7-13	Under	-23.5