Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville: Recap
Tuesday Dec 23, 2025 2:00 pm -
Boca Raton, FL
(Neutral Site)
Odds:
Louisville by 12.5,
Total Points:
44.5
Matchup Menu: TOL vs. LOU
| Game Winner Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | TOL | 18.4% | ||
| LOU | 81.6% | |||
| ATS Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU -12.5 | TOL | 49.3% | ||
| LOU | 50.7% | |||
| Totals Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 | Over | 50.4% | ||
| Under | 49.6% | |||
| Money Line Value Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lay Off | TOL | -2.7% | ||
| LOU | -1.7% | |||
| Final Score Projection | Likely Score | Vegas Implied | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 15.9 | 17 | 16.0 | 22 |
| LOU | 28.7 | 30 | 28.5 | 27 |
Offensive Stat Comparison
| Stat | TOL | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Yards/Play | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Points/Play | 0.542 | 0.502 |
| Rush Play % | 52.36% | 52.06% |
| Pass Play % | 47.64% | 47.94% |
| Completion % | 64.34% | 67.80% |
| 3D Conv % | 46.30% | 42.86% |
| RZ Scoring % | 93.33% | 72.73% |
Defensive Stat Comparison
| Stat | TOL | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.400 | 0.429 |
| Opp Completion % | 65.12% | 62.12% |
| Opp 3D Conv % | 38.98% | 38.60% |
| Opp RZ Scoring % | 92.31% | 81.25% |