2021 Bowl Pick’em Pool Strategy, Analysis and Updates

Strategy advice, analysis and updates to help you win your 2021 college football bowl pick'em pool, from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.

2021 College Bowl Pool Picks

Aidan Hutchinson is in play for the top overall pick in the NFL Draft (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

In this column we provide updates and explore strategies to maximize your edge in 2021 college football bowl pick’em pools. We also explain the rationale behind picks recommended by our Bowl Pick’em Picks product.

Use the links below to skip straight to a topic of interest:

 

Tuesday 1/4

Texas Bowl Between Kansas State and LSU Close Out Bowl Games (Besides Title Game)

Tonight’s game between Kansas State and LSU closes out the bowl games, other than the title game between Georgia and Alabama next Monday.

Kansas State has continued to jump in the spread and win odds. Yesterday, when we included picking Kansas State in our BetIQ Daily, they were favored by 4.5 points. Now, it’s up to 7.5 points, with 74% win odds.

LSU, meanwhile, is the most popular pick in this matchup, drawing 57% of the public’s picks. Thus, playing on Kansas State is the high value play.

Teams that have seen at least 3 points of line movement in their favor (Kansas State was initially an underdog) have gone 10-2, and 8-3-1 against the closing spread this bowl season.

Thursday 12/30

Tennessee Leads Important Value Picks on Thursday

We have four bowl games today, and three of them are likely high confidence point value plays in your pool that will determine how much of a move you can make up the standings before the stretch run.

Tennessee (vs. Purdue)

Tennessee has moved to a 7-point favorite, as Purdue has several key opt outs, including both of their leading receivers. This was originally a pretty close matchup based on the point spread, and the public is still picking it pretty evenly. But the line has moved strongly in the Volunteers’ favor, and as a result Tennessee is a high value play that could be key in getting near the top in the standings.

North Carolina (vs. South Carolina)

The Tar Heels are one of the largest remaining favorites (80% win odds) but enough pool entries are picking South Carolina to still mean there’s some value in just playing the heavily favored Tar Heels.

Michigan State (vs. Pittsburgh)

This is another game where we have seen line movement because of player participation news. Both star running back Kenneth Walker of Michigan State and quarterback Kenny Pickett of Pitt have opted out of playing. While both are missing key players, Pitt being down their star quarterback has a bigger impact on the spread and we have seen the line move so that the Spartans are favored.

The public is also giving a slight lean to the Spartans, but it’s still worth taking the favored team here at value.

Wisconsin (vs. Arizona State)

The final game is in the Las Vegas Bowl. Wisconsin has 68% win odds, but 85% popularity. As a result, it may make sense to play the upset if you are trailing the leader by a fair amount in your pool.

 

Tuesday 12/28

Full Bowl Schedule With Five Games Today

We’ve had more news about bowls getting canceled than actual games recently, but today is the first big bowl day after Christmas. Five different games will be played today. If you wanted, you could watch football from noon until well after midnight.

Here is what we have today:

  • Auburn vs. Houston in Birmingham Bowl: A close matchup with split popularity, Auburn is likely the lower confidence pick here.
  • Louisville vs. Air Force in First Responder Bowl: Another near-toss-up, Air Force is the unpopular value side in this one.
  • NC State vs. UCLA in Holiday Bowl: NC State is a slight favorite here, but you might see some UCLA pick recommendations as well.
  • Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech in Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State is a heavier favorite in this one, Tech could still be a suggestion in really large pool contests.
  • Minnesota vs. West Virginia in Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota is a 5-point favorite, but West Virginia could be a higher leverage upset play as our models give them a better chance than the oddsmakers.

This is also the day in the bowls where we cross over halfway done, as 17 have been completed so far and after today, we will have less than 20 remaining.

Monday 12/27

More Bowl Cancellations Over the Weekend

More bowl games were impacted by COVID news, after the Hawaii Bowl was canceled on Friday, and Texas A&M pulled out of the Gator Bowl last week.

  • The Military Bowl, set to be played today, was canceled due to issues with Boston College
  • The Fenway Bowl, scheduled for Wednesday, was canceled because of Virginia’s COVID issues
  • In addition, Miami has pulled out of the Sun Bowl because of COVID issues, and it is unknown whether a replacement will be found. That game is set for Friday.

As a result, we only have one bowl game today, a high value pick of Western Michigan against Nevada.

Friday 12/24

Hawaii Pulls Out of Hawaii Bowl Due to COVID

Breaking news from last night, as Hawaii pulled out of the Hawaii Bowl against Memphis, set to be played today, due to COVID. This move came shortly after Rutgers was announced as a replacement opponent for Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl. Memphis could have slid into that slot instead but will now be without a bowl game, and there will be no game today.

Check your pool rules and if you are in a confidence point pool adjust your points for the Hawaii Bowl to maximize your chances, depending on how the cancellation is treated.

Thursday 12/23

Four Bowl Games in Next Three Days

There are four bowl games in the next three days, including two today, before a Sunday off and the bowl schedule getting kicked into gear next week.

Here is the general outlook for the next four games:

  • Miami (OH) vs. North Texas in Frisco Football Classic. Miami is the favorite but being picked by less half the public and should be an important value play.
  • Florida vs. Central Florida, Gasparilla Bowl. Florida is also a value favorite in this game, with win odds higher than pick rate.
  • Memphis vs. Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl. The line has moved in Memphis’ favor, and while they aren’t technically a value favorite are still a decent value play.
  • Georgia State vs. Ball State, Camellia Bowl. Georgia State is the favorite here, but Ball State could sneak into some upset picks depending on pool size.

There are also some reports that Wake Forest could get another opponent for the Gator Bowl after Texas A&M withdrew. Rutgers is one possibility. If that happens that game will be added back into your bowl options.

 

Wednesday 12/22

Texas A&M Out of Gator Bowl Due to COVID

Big news affecting the Gator Bowl as Ross Dellenger reports that Texas A&M is having to withdraw from the Gator Bowl due to a COVID outbreak.

Wake Forest may be without an opponent for the game. The only way the game will be played is if there is another game that also has a team withdraw, in which case they could match up that team with Wake Forest.

So regardless, your bowl schedule should now have one fewer game, and you should read our Help Article on how to handle postponements or cancellations, and also check your pool rules on how scoring of those is handled.

Tuesday 12/21

Two Value Favorites in Action on Tuesday

Two value favorites are playing on Tuesday, both out of the Mountain West.

  • Wyoming (59% win odds, 56% popularity) is playing Kent State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
  • San Diego State (57% win odds, 52% popularity) is facing Texas-San Antonio in the Frisco Bowl

San Diego State opened as an underdog but became a favorite in the past few days, shifting the value play. Both of these teams are relatively small favorites, but with the public more evenly divided these are decently-sized leverage games in the standings.

 

Monday 12/20

Big Upsets Highlight Opening Bowl Games

We had nine bowl games, including the Celebration Bowl, over the weekend, and the betting underdog won five of them. Most of those upsets were involving teams with less than 30% win odds.

As a result, most entries have taken a fair amount of losses in the bowl pool. Just remember, everything is relative.

If you go by public pick data, the average entry won 4.4 of the first 9 games. That’s just under 50%. So if you are sitting at 5-4 or 4-5, you are not alone.

Meanwhile, all those upsets were likely a better outcome for some spread picks, especially those playing contrarian against the public. BYU, Louisiana, Appalachian State, and Jackson State were four of the most popular public spread picks, and three of those lost.

Today, we have just one bowl game, the Myrtle Beach Bowl with Tulsa and Old Dominion, and two more are on tap for tomorrow.

 

Friday 12/17

Bowl Games Underway with Nine Games Over Next Two Days

The first bowl game (Bahamas Bowl) has kicked off this morning between Middle Tennessee and Toledo.

Here’s an overview of our picks over the next two days.

  • Five of the six biggest favorites (by betting market odds) are in action in the next two days.
  • So you’ll probably see Toledo, Coastal Carolina, Jackson State, Liberty, and Fresno State among game winner picks, and potentially at high confidence points depending on the size of your pool and your prize goal.
  • Oregon State is value favorite, so the Beavers could be recommended at higher confidence point value in some pools.
  • If you are going to have some upset picks recommended for your pool size/goal, it’s most likely to be Marshall, Western Kentucky, and UAB.

Thursday 12/16

Nevada QB Carson Strong Sitting Out Bowl Game

Carson Strong confirmed that he was declaring for the NFL Draft and would sit out Nevada’s bowl game against Western Michigan.

The point spread had already shifted dramatically, after head coach Jay Norvell left to take the Colorado State, and the rumors that Strong would also not play emerged. With this news, it jumped again.

Western Michigan is now favored by 6 points, after the game opened with Nevada favored by 6.5 points when bowls were announced.

With only 30% of the public currently picking Western Michigan, expect it to be a top confidence point play in game-winner pools.

 

Wednesday 12/15

Bowl Value Picks are Everywhere

Yesterday, we linked to our Bowl Value Picks article, which highlighted some potential value plays this year. Here’s the thing, though. Those were just a small number of the total plays showing up as value plays, particularly among betting favorites.

Here’s a quick summary of the 43 teams we project as favorites with > 50% win odds:

  • Betting market average: 64.4% win odds
  • TR Win Odds average: 64.4% win odds
  • Public pick percentage average: 65.6% pick popularity

A whopping 19 of the betting favorites (nearly half!) are showing up as value favorites where the win odds are higher than the pick rate this year so far. To see the full set of value favorites, check out the Data Grid.

For comparison, we project the 16 NFL favorites with an average of 68.5% win odds and 81.1% popularity this week, a bigger gap in picking favorites than we are seeing with bowls.

Some of this is due to the nature of bowl pools, which are more like a 3-week NFL contest in terms of length and number of outcomes that decide it. But even if that should incentivize a little more risk-taking, it also seems pretty clear that the public is a little too upset crazy so far when it comes to the bowl picks.

As a result, you may not see as many upset swings with picks, and in confidence point pools, may not see as many upsets for higher points, even in larger pools. That’s because with so many value favorites, you can leverage some moderate betting favorites, who are in some cases being picked like an underdog or a toss-up type of game.

 

Tuesday 12/14

Value Picks Article is Live; Line Movement in Texas A&M-Wake Forest

Our 2021 Value Picks article is live. Here is your reminder that the games we highlight in this article should represent some of the value plays you will see in your pick set–if things don’t change. But things can change in bowl season, so your primary source for picks is your own specific pick recommendations.

One such example occurred yesterday after we highlighted several matchups in that article. Originally, Texas A&M was showing up as a value favorite against Wake Forest, favored by 7.5 points in the Gator Bowl. But shortly after we published, news broke that A&M’s quarterback for most of the year, Zach Calzada, was entering the transfer portal.

As a result, the line has moved downward and while Texas A&M is still favored by 5 points, they are not the value favorite they appeared to be.

Thursday 12/9

Western Michigan is Early Value Pick Because of Nevada QB Status

We have early pick popularity data now in the Data Grid and soon we’ll have a breakdown of some value picks. One early one is Western Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit on December 27.

After opening at Nevada -6.5 four days ago, the line is now Western Michigan by 2.5, a massive 9-point swing.

Why? Well, in what could be a theme, it’s because Nevada QB Carson Strong may not play in the game. He is a potential early pick in the NFL Draft, and has dealt with a knee injury.

Add in that Nevada’s head coach, Jay Norvell, just left the program to move within the conference to Colorado State, and there’s a lot going on here. Several assistants have left to go with him, so you could have a team traveling across country for an early kickoff, shortly after Christmas, without their head coach, several assistants, and the quarterback.

Right now, 65% of the public is taking Nevada, putting all the value on Western Michigan. We’ll see if that holds up or if the pick rates fall.

Wednesday 12/8

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett Undecided on Playing in Peach Bowl

Appearing on the Dan Patrick Show, Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett said he was undecided about playing in the Peach Bowl against Michigan State. Pickett is projected as a first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Pittsburgh was favored by 3.5 points yesterday, but that line has already dropped to 2.5 points at many books, and some have even dropped it to 1.5 points.

If Pickett actually does forego participating in the bowl game, Michigan State would likely move to the betting favorite role.

As we saw last year with Florida and some other teams, players choosing not to play in the bowl game can have a big impact on game spreads and odds. Often, the schools are under no obligation to disclose this info, and it may not come out until close to game time.

In last year’s Cotton Bowl, it wasn’t until the morning of the bowl game that news began to emerge about key players sitting out for Florida, and by game time the spread had moved to Oklahoma by a touchdown.

This can obviously be frustrating when participating in a bowl pool. Ideally, your pool is set up so you can submit your picks right before each game. In those pools, we can gain a big advantage based on being responsive to news and shifts in the odds.

But if your pool requires all picks to be submitted out the outset of the bowl season, there’s not really anything you can do … except hope the players sitting out are on the team you are picking against.

Tuesday 12/7

Comparing 2021-22 to Past Bowl Seasons and Spreads

One thing you might notice if you look at the early point spreads this year, compared to last bowl season, is that there are a lot more “close” matchups by spread this year.

Here’s a comparison showing the spread distributions in bowl games. This uses the closing lines for past seasons, as can be found in our Custom Trends Tool. For this year, it’s looking at the current lines as of Tuesday, December 7.

Spread202120202019201820172016
3 or less39%19%23%36%35%27%
3.5 to 6.527%19%38%38%40%27%
7 to 1027%50%23%18%18%27%
10.5 or more7%12%15%8%8%20%

So yes, there are about double the percentage of games where the spread is a field goal or under, compared to last year. That probably understates it, as there are six different matchups right now where the spread is -1.

Of course, last year was probably more the anomaly. Due to the shortened seasons, COVID cancellations, and lack of non-conference games in the regular season, there were just more uneven matchups set.

Still, this year compares more with the 2017 and 2018 bowl seasons, where there were relatively fewer games with large spreads over 10 points, and more close matchups.

In those closer matchups, paying attention to pick popularity becomes even more important in identify where to leverage outcomes. We’ll be taking a look at that in the near future, though right now the pick popularity data is not reliable enough to draw conclusions on which teams provide value yet.

Monday 12/6

All Bowl Matchups Set with Spread and Win Odds Information

We have 44 potential matchups for the 2021-22 bowl season, and you can see all of them in the Data Grid of our Bowl Pick’em Picks product.

This includes the Celebration Bowl between Jackson State (coached by Deion Sanders) and South Carolina State, if that game is included in your bowl pool. It also includes the national title game, though that matchup obviously hasn’t been determined yet.

The first bowl games begin on Friday, December 17, with the Bahamas Bowl between Toledo and Middle Tennessee, and the Cure Bowl featuring Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois.

We are starting to get pick popularity data on all of these matchups as well, but that is very preliminary and subject to large shifts right now. Other than the national title matchup, we also have point spreads for the remaining bowl games, as well as win odds projections from our algorithmic models.

In upcoming days, we’ll break down in more detail this year’s bowl outlook.

Monday 12/6

Bowl Pool Strategy Guide (Updated for 2021)

If you are interested in reading more about the strategy and philosophy behind our picks, check out our Bowl Pool Strategy Guide.

The TL;DR version of some of the concepts behind winning bowl pools is:

  • Trust objective data and betting market-based numbers, which act as a hedge against popular fan/media biases.
  • Anticipate and adjust for how your opponents are likely to pick games, since you win pools by getting games right that others do not.
  • Look for value plays where the risk-vs.-reward proposition is strong, based on a teams odds to win and pick popularity.
  • Consider your specific pool rules in making your picks.
  • Adjust your strategy depending on how big your pool is.

While every year is different (and in a contest like a bowl pool that is particularly true), since 2014, we have used these concepts to help subscribers win bowl pools nearly twice as often as one would expect.