December 3, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
The Packers get Washington at home and will be a popular survivor choice (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of Week 14, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.
This is an early assessment of the Week 14 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.
With the public going heavily on Carolina, we recommended the Chiefs to over half of the remaining entries for our subscribers. So for the second time in a month, over 60% of the public was wiped out with big upsets while our recommendations survived at a much higher rate.
We did recommend the Philadelphia Eagles as our second-most frequent call (about 20% of the time) and the Eagles were also upset by Miami. Altogether, the public survived at a 37% rate in Week 13, while our recommendations survived 70% of the time. Cumulatively, based on elimination rates each week, only about 0.6% of public entries are estimated to be alive, compared to 4.8% for our recommendations. That amounts to a survival rate about eight times as high as the public.
Note: in the analysis below, we refer to the expected value (EV) of picking various teams this week. The values we’re using are based on a standard-rule pool with 100 opponents alive, and assuming pick rates those reported nationally. EV values differ by pool size, so these values may not match those we report for your pool.
The popularity numbers and point spread values have been updated to reflect data as of Friday, December 6th.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 39% (previously 42%)
Point Spread: -13
Last week, one of the offered reasons for avoiding Green Bay as a survivor pick was because they would have Washington, at home, this week and likely be a top play. Green Bay is tied for the largest point spread (favored by 13 points) this week. Our models give them win odds of 86% this week.
They are still a very popular choice this week at 39% pick popularity. Their ultimate value will likely be determined by just how popular they get. At their current popularity, they are still a decent “expected value” play this week. Since we are also down to the end game in many pools, if you can check who your opponents have used you can make a call on Green Bay. If you expect that more than half your pool will use them, their value starts to diminish.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 25% (previously 20%)
Point Spread: -9.5
Get all of our premium articles, tools and picks for only $19/week.
Printed from TeamRankings.com - © 2005-2019 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.