November 26, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers get a great matchup in Survivor in Week 13 (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of Week 13 2019, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.
This is an early assessment of the Week 13 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.
Last week, our strategy of avoiding the extremely popular Browns did not work out for some entries. Our two most common recommendations were the Saints and Falcons. The Saints survived against Carolina after surrendering a big lead, while Atlanta could not come back against Tampa Bay. As a result, 68% of our recommendations survived versus 88% for the public (the public’s biggest losses were Detroit, Atlanta, and Oakland). For the year, 1.7% of the public entries are still alive in standard pools, compared to 6.8% for our recommendations, so our advice is still providing a 4x edge on the public entering Week 13.
Carolina is the most popular choice in Week 13, because they have not been used much in survivor. Some of the other potential top safety choices are more likely to have been used, but maybe you have them available. Let’s review some of the decisions.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 44%
Point Spread: -10
Carolina is tied with Kansas City for the largest point spread of the week, because they get woeful Washington. Washington, though, did beat Detroit on Sunday. The Panthers are getting 44% of public picks in early action, a pretty high number for a team with 80% win odds based on implied money lines, and 76% win odds according to our models.
Carolina is an attractive choice here because this is clearly the best spot to use them (they could be an underdog in all remaining games), and because they are generally available for entries that have already used up the most attractive choices.
But because of that high popularity rate, they also have only modest expected value.
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