November 19, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
The Cleveland Browns have rebounded and have a chance to move into the playoff picture in Week 13 (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of Week 12 2019, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.
This is an early assessment of the Week 12 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.
After one of the biggest survivor elimination weeks of the last decade two weeks ago, almost every entry survived last week. It didn’t always look like that would be the case. Oakland, the most popular choice, let Cincinnati score first and hang close all game long. Minnesota, the second-most popular choice, was behind 20-0 at halftime against Denver before rallying. San Francisco trailed late against Arizona before scoring in the final minute.
Our recommendations largely avoided the extremely popular Raiders, who were selected by over half the public, and went instead with several other teams, led by Minnesota, Dallas, San Francisco, and Buffalo. All of our recommended picks advanced last week. For the public, 3.6% of entries were eliminated, with the largest single contributor being 2.2% of the public going with Carolina.
Last week, the Raiders were a popular choice as a large favorite who had been little used to that point in survivor. This week, it’s the Cleveland Browns’ turn to come on down, as they get Miami at home. Should you go with Cleveland or look elsewhere?
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 42%
Point Spread: -11
Cleveland isn’t quite as popular as the Raiders were a week ago, but they are still being selected by over 40% of the public in early numbers, and that could climb as the week continues. The Browns are the largest favorite of the week, getting to host the Dolphins. Our projections have them at 80% win odds (highest of the week) and the betting market implied odds are at 82% for the Browns to win.
Nevertheless, Cleveland is merely a moderate value as a pick this week, because of the vast difference between them and all the other options in pick popularity. The Browns are attractive (in addition to the higher win odds) in part because they have only modest future value. That said, if you do go with a different choice, they are about as good of a pick (by win odds) in Week 14, when they will be far less popular and thus have higher expected value.
There are other teams that we have rated higher as potential value plays this week, to diversify from the public going heavily on Cleveland. If you would like to see some teams we are more likely to be recommending this week, there are plenty of attractive options below.
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