November 13, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
The Oakland Raiders are the top choice in survivor pools in Week 11 (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)
A short note to begin: Now that we’re entering the home stretch of the 2019 season, the full text of our weekly NFL survivor pick article will be available to TeamRankings premium subscribers only. (If you’re already a premium subscriber, just make sure you’re logged in, and you’ll see the full article.)
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We hope you have enjoyed our analysis, and thanks for reading. Whether you subscribe or not, best of luck (and skill) the rest of the way!
In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of Week 11 2019, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.
This is an early assessment of the Week 11 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.
Last week was a pivotal week for survivor, and a good chunk of our subscribers saw their fortunes increase dramatically with the results. That is because we advised most of our subscriber entries to avoid picking the Indianapolis Colts or New Orleans Saints. While over 80% of the public picked one of those two teams, less than 20% of our recommended entries were on those two teams. Our most frequent recommendation (23% of our recommendations) was the Chicago Bears, a pick that shot to the top choice on Sunday morning with the news that Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford was out. We also recommended the Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Kansas City Chiefs to at least 12% of our subscriber entries.
The net result of all of the upsets, including both the Saints and Colts losing, is that only about 12.6% of the public made it through the week, and around 2% of the public is still alive overall. It was one of the biggest elimination weeks of the last decade. We wrote about the biggest elimination weeks in survivor in a separate post, if you want to see where Week 10 ranks historically.
Meanwhile, our recommendations survived at a 61.4% rate, and our subscribers are more than five times as likely to still be alive compared to the general public.
The Oakland Raiders have jumped to the top of the public charts because they play the Bengals, and because they pretty much have not been an option until now. Of course, when a team is really popular, that generally means you should at least consider other options, so let’s review the most popular choices this week.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 51%
Point Spread: -10.5
The Oakland Raiders are the most popular choice this week in survivor, driven not only by their matchup with the winless Cincinnati, but also by the fact that they have not been in the top five in popularity in any previous survivor week. The Raiders are off to a 5-4 start, but so far have not won any game by more than eight points. Then again, they also haven’t played a team struggling like the Bengals, who replaced Andy Dalton with Ryan Finley at quarterback, and were destroyed by the Ravens last week.
As a result, the popularity figure is extremely high. The 51% usage rate for Oakland means that their value as a survivor play is reduced. They are in the top tier of safety options this week, but our models do have them as the third-highest, at 77% win probability, meaning there are other options that are similarly safe, or safer, but do not come with the high popularity.
If you would like to see the teams we are more likely to be recommending this week, there are plenty of attractive options below.
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