November 6, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
Drew Brees is pointing out that the Saints are the most popular survivor choice. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
A short note to begin: Now that we’re entering the home stretch of the 2019 season, the full text of our weekly NFL survivor pick article will be available to TeamRankings premium subscribers only. (If you’re already a premium subscriber, just make sure you’re logged in, and you’ll see the full article.)
For those interested in subscribing, we just rolled out a new weekly subscription option, plus we’re offering a special discount on our rest-of-season survivor package, which includes our customized weekly picks for your pools.
We hope you have enjoyed our analysis, and thanks for reading. Whether you subscribe or not, best of luck (and skill) the rest of the way!
In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of Week 10 2019, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.
This is an early assessment of the Week 10 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.
The three most popular choices from Week 9 survived, though it was dicey. San Francisco got a closer game from Arizona than expected, winning by 3 points. Seattle went to overtime at home against Tampa Bay, and won the toss and drove for a winning score. Green Bay and the New York Jets, the next most popular entries, were not as fortunate. With their losses, plus some other smaller ones, the public survived at an estimated 86% rate for the week.
Our subscriber recommendations largely avoided the popular 49ers and Seahawks, and were heaviest on Buffalo against Washington, with 36% on the Bills. After that, three other teams were each recommended to about 16-17% of our subscribers: Carolina, Cleveland, and Dallas. Carolina and Dallas got the win, but Cleveland managed to lose a game against a quarterback who had never started and when they had more yards and fewer turnovers. As a result of that, and a few other recommendations, our subscriber recommendations advanced 78% of the time.
Overall, the public has survived at approximately a 16% rate to Week 10, and our recommendations at a 17% rate. Our subscribers also have a higher percentage of 49ers, Vikings, Bills, and Chiefs still available for future use compared to the public, which could be important in coming weeks.
This week features two teams being selected by around 40% of the remaining public entries so far. They each look like the safest choices this week, but should you stay with one of them, or take a little more risk and fade both and play for the big upset? Those are the choices that face survivor players this week.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 45%
Point Spread: -13
Drew Brees is back, the Saints have an attractive matchup against rival Atlanta, who are 1-7 and 30th in points allowed per game, and have a league-low 7 sacks on defense. New Orleans has also been little used in survivor until now. In fact, their highest popularity figure until this week was 5% of the public entries taking them in Week 8. That means most entries have them available, and a large percentage are using them as the highest win odds team of the week. Our models put them at 83% win odds.
That high popularity figure takes away some of their value, in a week with two other options with greater than 80% implied win odds based on the betting market money lines.
This does look like the best option to use New Orleans based on projected win odds, and the only one where we currently project them as a top three option. They do, though, have three other weeks where we project their win odds at 70% or better, and could be a good future lower popularity play.
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 40%
Point Spread: -10.5
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