NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: How Often Does The Safest Pick Actually Lose?

September 6, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

There is no such thing as a lock in the NFL.

Even the biggest NFL favorites lose sometimes. Just last season, for example, Minnesota was favored by 16.5 points over Buffalo in Week 3. In the 16 NFL seasons preceding last year, there had only been 22 games with a favorite that big, out of over 4,000 total games played. Those favorites went 22-0.

Lo and behold, the Vikings lost. As a result, nearly 60% of still-alive survivor pool players who took “mortal lock” Minnesota that week were eliminated from their pools.

In short, there is always a chance that the safest team of each week loses, and based on the historical numbers, picking the safest team each week may not get you nearly as far as you think it would in your NFL survivor pool.

Below is a summary of data from the last five NFL seasons. The tables show the team with the highest win odds in each week, along with its game result.

Note: Teams can show up more than once in each table below, if they were the safest team in more than one week during the season.

2018’s Safest Survivor Picks

In 2018, picking the safest team of the week would have eliminated you in Week 1.

Week	Team	Opponent	Win Odds	Public Pick %	Result
1	NO	TB	80%	31%	L
2	LAR	ARI	85%	35%	W
3	MIN	BUF	89%	59%	L
4	LAC	SF	80%	33%	W
5	NE	IND	83%	43%	W
6	HOU	BUF	79%	24%	W
7	LAR	SF	78%	22%	W
8	NE	BUF	89%	19%	W
9	CHI	BUF	80%	31%	W
10	KC	ARI	89%	21%	W
11	LAC	DEN	74%	13%	L
12	LAC	ARI	85%	9%	W
13	KC	OAK	87%	6%	W
14	LAC	CIN	89%	5%	W
15	LAR	PHI	87%	9%	L
16	LAR	ARI	84%	9%	W
17	KC	OAK	86%	6%	W

2017’s Safest Survivor Picks

In 2017, picking the safest team of the week would have eliminated you for sure by Week 6.

Week	Team	Opponent	Win Odds	Public Pick %	Result
1	PIT	CLE	79%	28%	W
2	SEA	SF	87%	21%	W
3	NE	HOU	88%	28%	W
4	SEA	IND	87%	40%	W
5	PIT	JAC	74%	37%	L
6	ATL	MIA	87%	21%	L
7	DAL	SF	71%	29%	W
8	PHI	SF	86%	25%	W
9	SEA	WAS	77%	12%	L
10	LAR	HOU	84%	19%	W
11	KC	NYG	78%	48%	L
12	NE	MIA	90%	17%	W
13	LAC	CLE	86%	56%	W
14	NE	MIA	81%	14%	L
15	NO	NYJ	89%	19%	W
16	BAL	IND	86%	18%	W
17	NE	NYJ	89%	8%	W

2016’s Safest Survivor Picks

In 2016, picking the safest team of the week would have eliminated you for sure by Week 4.

Week	Team	Opponent	Win Odds	Public Pick %	Result
1	SEA	MIA	81%	36%	W
2	CAR	SF	82%	39%	W
3	SEA	SF	80%	8%	W
4	ARI	LAR	79%	22%	L
5	NE	CLE	80%	49%	W
6	ARI	NYJ	76%	9%	W
7	CIN	CLE	83%	43%	W
8	NE	BUF	69%	10%	W
9	GB	IND	75%	11%	L
10	ARI	SF	87%	42%	W
11	NE	SF	81%	10%	W
12	NE	NYJ	80%	3%	W
13	NE	LAR	86%	15%	W
14	DET	CHI	74%	54%	W
15	SEA	LAR	90%	13%	W
16	NE	NYJ	92%	8%	W
17	SEA	SF	82%	13%	W

2015’s Safest Survivor Picks

In 2015, picking the safest team of the week would have eliminated you in Week 2.

Week	Team	Opponent	Win Odds	Public Pick %	Result
1	NE	PIT	76%	10%	W
2	NO	TB	79%	45%	L
3	SEA	CHI	91%	39%	W
4	SEA	DET	81%	13%	W
5	KC	CHI	79%	26%	L
6	GB	SD	82%	25%	W
7	ARI	BAL	80%	35%	W
8	NE	MIA	79%	8%	W
9	NE	WAS	89%	13%	W
10	GB	DET	83%	18%	L
11	SEA	SF	89%	28%	W
12	CIN	STL	79%	7%	W
13	PIT	IND	80%	9%	W
14	KC	SD	83%	19%	W
15	NE	TEN	89%	18%	W
16	SEA	STL	84%	4%	L
17	PIT	CLE	85%	19%	W

2014’s Safest Survivor Picks

In 2014, picking the safest team of the week would have gotten you all way through the season — again, if you were in a pool that let you pick the same team as many times as you wanted.

(Denver shows up five times in the table, for example.)

If you were only allowed to pick a specific team once per season, it could have been a much different story.

Week	Team	Opponent	Win Odds	Public Pick %	Result
1	PHI	JAC	81%	43%	W
2	DEN	KC	87%	27%	W
3	NE	OAK	88%	53%	W
4	SD	JAC	85%	58%	W
5	NO	TB	81%	32%	W
6	DEN	NYJ	79%	31%	W
7	NE	NYJ	82%	20%	W
8	DEN	SD	79%	3%	W
9	SEA	OAK	85%	33%	W
10	DEN	OAK	84%	14%	W
11	SD	OAK	83%	17%	W
12	IND	JAC	86%	42%	W
13	IND	WAS	76%	16%	W
14	GB	ATL	86%	11%	W
15	BAL	JAC	87%	32%	W
16	GB	TB	84%	15%	W
17	DEN	OAK	91%	14%	W

Observations and Notes

• The overall winning percentage of the safest team of the week was 70-15 (82.4%).
• Performance varied from year-to-year, as you would expect. None lost in 2014; Five did in 2017.

Survivor pick popularity for the safest team goes down drastically over the course of the season, since most players tend to “burn” the best teams early on:

• Over the last ten weeks of the season, 56% of the safest picks had a pick percentage of 15% or lower.
• Over the first seven weeks of the season, 54% of the safest picks had a pick percentage of 30% or higher.

So if you plan ahead wisely, you can really get a big edge over your survivor pool opponents in the later weeks.

If you’re in an NFL survivor pool, make sure you check out our NFL Survivor Picks. We also provide Football Pick’em Picks and NFL Betting Picks.

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