Super Bowl Stat Predictions: Team & Player Projections For Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Super Bowl Team and Player Prop Projections

The Bucs could not cover Tyreek Hill but somehow covered the spread in the first matchup (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

For the first time, we’ve computed data-driven team and player projections for the Super Bowl — in this case, Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Similar to how we create our predictions and odds for March Madness, these Super Bowl projections are rooted in hard data like power ratings and betting odds, but driven by a thorough manual analysis of team, matchup, and player specific factors. The methodology behind our projection approach is explained in detail below.

Our goal here is to provide an objective foundation to help our subscribers evaluate the staggering amount of prop bets available to Super Bowl bettors. Unlike the heavily scrutinized point spread market, for example, the huge variety of props on offer for the Super Bowl should (in theory) provide a decent opportunity to find at least a few props offered by sportsbooks that are positive expectation bets.

We will update these projections based on relevant news that breaks before the Super Bowl kicks off (e.g. injury situations). We also plan to publish some additional articles that use these projections to analyze some specific Super Bowl LV player props on offer, including touchdown prop bets.

We will start with team passing and rushing projections, and then move on to specific player projections.

Last Update: Thursday, February 4th

Team Stat Projections for Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay

Our team stat projections are based on multiple factors. These include:

  1. How teams have generally performed in recent seasons in games with similar betting lines.
  2. How Kansas City and Tampa Bay have performed in games with similar betting lines.
  3. Overall per-game stat distributions for both Kansas City and Tampa Bay in 2020.
  4. Consideration of injuries and matchup specifics as it relates to both teams.
  5. Results of the 2020 regular season matchup between the two teams.

Here are our projections for both teams:

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