Super Bowl Picks: 3 Reasons To Pick The Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win

February 4, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

You will hear a lot of different stats presented as reasons why you should pick Tampa Bay or Kansas City to win the Super Bowl.

Some of these reasons will be sound, but most of them you should ignore. In their never ending quest to deliver simple narratives to mass-market NFL fans, the talking heads on TV and radio love to quote juicy sounding records and trends. But 9 times out of 10 (at least), their numbers are based on small sample sizes of data that you simply can’t trust to be predictive.

While it’s certainly true that an NFL season consisting of only 16 regular season games for each team doesn’t provide much conclusive data to go on, we’ll try to raise the analysis bar by providing some insights about this year’s Super Bowl matchup that are supported by multiple data points, and not just one cherry-picked random trend.

Below are three data-driven reasons why Tampa Bay can pull off a mild upset and win Super Bowl LV. In the spirit of analytical fairness, we’ve also published three counter-arguments supporting the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay is Surging Coming Off Three Road Wins

Tampa Bay got off to an uneven start to the year, especially on offense. They would have great games, followed by stinkers. Tom Brady was adjusting to a new team at age 43, playing for a new coach and with new receivers. His initial learning process was further compounded by injuries at the wide receiver position, with Chris Godwin missing time at multiple points during the season.

Since an embarrassing Week 9 loss to New Orleans at home, however, Tampa Bay:

• Has gone 8-2, with both losses coming by just 3 points.
• Has now won seven games in a row, and scored at least 30 points in six straight games.
• Just won three straight playoff games on the road.
• Became the first non-division winner to advance to the Super Bowl since the 2010.
• Became the first team from the Wild Card Round to reach the Super Bowl since 2012.

“Momentum” is an overused and subjectively defined word in sports, and it’s very difficult to tell when a team’s short term hot streak is the result of an improvement with staying power versus some confluence of luck and random events. Still, there are legitimate reasons to believe that Tampa Bay is a better team now than they were back in September.

Teams that have done what Tampa Bay just pulled off — advancing to the Super Bowl by winning three games coming out of the Wild Card Round — also have outperformed expectations in the Super Bowl. As we noted in our Super Bowl Point Spread Trends article, teams like Tampa Bay have gone 8-3 straight up and a remarkable 10-0-1 ATS in the last 25 years. The last similar team to advance to the Super Bowl and not cover the spread was the 1992 Buffalo Bills.

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Tampa Bay’s Defensive Front Seven vs. Kansas City’s Offensive Line Injuries

The biggest injury X-factor in Super Bowl LV concerns the Kansas City offensive line. First, the Chiefs lost starting left tackle Eric Fisher late in the AFC Championship to an Achilles injury. Fisher had been the only Chiefs’ offensive lineman to start in every game (excluding Week 17 when they rested key players).

Kansas City already has had to juggle its offensive line this year, and Patrick Mahomes’ otherworldly scrambling skills certainly help make up for depth issues up front. But with Fisher out, veteran Mike Remmers (who was already replacing pro bowl right tackle Mitchell Schwartz) likely will slide over to left tackle, which would force other adjustments and linemen to play out of their normal positions.

Tampa Bay’s strength on defense, meanwhile, is its front seven. The Bucs’ D-line has a mix of quality veterans and young stars, and four different Bucs have at least six sacks this year: Super Bowl veterans Jason Pierre-Paul (with the Giants) and Ndamukong Suh (with the Rams), along with Shaq Barrett and emerging superstar inside linebacker Devin White.

While Mahomes will undoubtedly dance his way around sacks other QB’s would take, Tampa Bay’s defense should have a good shot to generate pressure against the Chiefs’ revamped offensive line and force Mahomes to throw earlier in the play, before his deep threat receivers can break free. If they do that often enough, it could make the difference between winning and losing.

Tampa Bay Has a Big Edge in Rushing Defense

Speaking of the Tampa Bay front seven, the Bucs have a notable advantage in rush defense against Kansas City. The Buccaneers rank 1st in most key rushing defense stats, from yards allowed per carry and per game to the lowest percentage of overall first downs allowed via opponent rush attempts. Kansas City’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed 4.6 yards per carry this year, in the bottom quarter of the league in that category.

One needs to be careful not to overvalue rushing defense; the NFL is a passing league now, the Chiefs have a pass-heavy offense, and the team with the better rush defense has an uneven record in past Super Bowls. At the same time, the Bucs boast a somewhat unique combination of strengths that likely makes such historical comparisons less relevant; most teams that have relied on strong rushing defense to make it to the Super Bowl haven’t had as dynamic and productive of a passing offense as Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay likely wants to enter Super Bowl LV with a plan similar to how they started against Green Bay, opting for more balanced rushing and passing, especially against the Chiefs’ relative weakness at rush defense. If they can successfully chew up clock with a running game, it would shorten the game and reduce possessions and opportunities for Patrick Mahomes. This was a strategy they could not employ in the regular season matchup against the Chiefs, because Kansas City quickly jumped in front by 17 points.

Still, Tampa Bay’s rush defense more than did its part to keep the team in the first matchup against the Chiefs, despite the Bucs falling behind big in the early going. They stopped Kansas City on two plays from the 1-yard line, forcing a short field goal, and stuffed the Chiefs on two other third-and-short plays. The Tampa Bay defensive line also forced several holding calls on the Chiefs’ offense in the second half, which allowed the offense to climb back within a field goal late in the game.

The game-within-a-game of high leverage, short yardage plays could be a key factor again in the Super Bowl rematch between these two teams, and it’s a game the Bucs’ rush defense has proven more than capable of winning.

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Looking for more Super Bowl analysis and betting content? Check out some of our other articles:

10 Top Props: Our Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets For Chiefs vs. Bucs

Super Bowl TD Props & Odds: Best Bets To Score A Touchdown

1st Half Super Bowl Betting Stats & Odds: 1H Spread, Over/Under, First To Score

Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay Super Bowl Matchup Stats: Who Has The Edge?

Super Bowl MVP Odds & Best Bets: Mahomes, Brady or a Long Shot?

Super Bowl Stat Predictions: Team & Player Projections For Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: O/U Records & Stats For Bucs vs. Chiefs

Super Bowl Point Spread Trends: ATS Records & Stats For Bucs vs. Chiefs

Super Bowl Line Movement Analysis: Should You Bet Now Or Wait?

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