NFL Week 9 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)

November 10, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers pulled at all the stops against Kansas City (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

Week 9 was a week of lots of close calls, especially for big favorites. In the end, though, most of them survived.

Miami continued their run of good form, winning at Arizona despite getting outgained again, as the game came down to multiple 4th-and-1 decisions late that went Miami’s way.
Minnesota continued their surge with a second straight division win in the NFC North, this time against the Detroit Lions.
Dallas finally snapped their streak of not covering the spread, getting their first cover of the season as a 14-point underdog against Pittsburgh. The Cowboys led most of the way before losing late.
The New York Jets almost snapped their winless streak to start the year, but came up just short against New England.

In total, the four biggest favorites of the week ended up going 4-0 straight up, but did so by a combined 12 points, with three of them trailing at halftime.

In this post, we’ll examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 9, but also review some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading.

This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams may be setting up well to cover the spread in the future. (To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)

NFL Week 9 By the Betting Numbers

Biggest upset: Miami over Arizona (+6, +210 money line)
Biggest ATS cover margin: New Orleans over Tampa Bay (+38, won by 35 points as 3-point underdog)
Most points above over/under line: Seattle-Buffalo (+22.5, 78 total points vs. O/U line of 55.5)
Most points below over/under line: Indianapolis-Baltimore (-13.5, 34 total points vs. O/U line of 47.5)
Most points scored vs. team expectation: Buffalo (44 points vs. 26.25 expected)
Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Tampa Bay (3 points vs. 27.0 expected)

Best Passing Week Ever … Except for Tom Brady

Over at Football Perspective, Chase Stuart notes that Week 9 was the Greatest Passing Week in NFL History. Quarterbacks combined to complete 68.0% of passes, threw 55 TD passes to only 18 INTs, and averaged 7.86 yards per pass attempt, while taking a low number of sacks.

As remarkable as it was, you should also consider that this week featured two different quarterbacks making their first career starts (Garrett Gilbert with Dallas and Jake Luton with Jacksonville), and eight of the 28 teams in action this week had a different starting quarterback in Week 9 than their opening game starter.

Equally notable is that the numbers were held down by the veterans. Tom Brady had the worst performance amid a week of passing explosion, throwing three interceptions, barely clearing 200 yards and scoring no touchdowns. Philip Rivers, against Baltimore, had the second-worst numbers, at 227 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.

Houston’s Defense Has a Problem

I don’t know if this is exactly a revelation, but Houston has a major problem on defense. It’s a big reason why they’ve fallen to 1-7 ATS despite holding on to win their second game of the year against Jacksonville.

Jacksonville QB Jake Luton, pressed into his first career start as a rookie, averaged 8 yards per pass attempt against them and nearly brought the Jaguars back, just missing on a two-point conversion attempt to tie the game.

If you are a glass half-full kind of guy, evaluating Luton’s performance, you might consider those numbers by a rookie backup to be great.

If you are a glass half-empty person, you could point out that it was actually the second-worst passing performance against Houston this year, ahead of only Gardner Minshew in Jacksonville’s other game against Houston.

The Houston Texans have not held a QB under a passer rating of 90.0 this year, and everyone but Luton and Minshew has been over 100.0. However, they are making up for their inability to prevent QBs from being extremely efficient by also allowing RBs to run free. Houston is dead last in rushing yards allowed and next to last in yards per carry allowed on defense.

So it would be wise to temper the expectations on Jake Luton until he’s played against a different defense.

Carolina Plays to Win

Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule had one of the most impressive displays on Sunday, in a loss. He did everything he could to maximize his team’s chances, taking appropriate risks given that he was up against the defending Super Bowl champs. Here is a rundown:

After a long opening drive, Carolina faced a 4th-and-3. Most coaches would have taken the field goal points in that situation, but Carolina went for it and scored a touchdown on a Teddy Bridgewater pass to Christian McCaffrey.
On the next possession, Carolina ran a fake punt on their own side of the field that resulted in a big gain, and they scored another touchdown to go up 14-3 while Patrick Mahomes had barely touched the ball.
On 4th and 14 at the start of the 4th quarter, down by 9, Carolina went and converted on a great run by Bridgewater. While that’s the right call going against the Chiefs offense, we know plenty of coaches that would have punted away that one and tried to just play defense.
Carolina immediately tried an onside kick after the touchdown on that drive to bring it within 2 points, which failed. Plenty of coaches would have also kicked that away.
After yet another touchdown, and having three timeouts, the Panthers tried the onside kick again.

Not every decision worked out, but Rhule came into the game and pushed it, recognizing that he needed to be aggressive to try to steal the game. He almost pulled it off. That bodes well going forward, and despite the current four-game losing streak, this will be a team to watch in the future.

NFL Home Field Advantage in 2020

One of the things we are tracking this year is how home teams are performing, with many teams playing in front of no fans to start the year. In Week 9, home teams went 5-9 straight up and 7-7 ATS.

Weekly NFL Home Team Records, 2020 Season To Date

Week	W	L	T	WIN PCT	ATS W	ATS L	ATS PCT
1	8	8	0	50.0%	9	7	56.3%
2	11	5	0	68.8%	8	8	50.0%
3	6	9	1	40.6%	7	9	43.7%
4	6	9	0	30.8%	5	10	33.3%
5	9	5	0	61.5%	6	8	42.9%
6	7	7	0	50.0%	6	8	42.9%
7	6	8	0	42.9%	6	8	42.9%
8	7	7	0	50.0%	8	6	57.1%
9	5	9	0	35.7%	7	7	50.0%
Overall	65	67	1	49.2%	62	71	46.6%

There were several big road favorites in Week 9, and all survived with wins (Pittsburgh, New England, and Houston all coming down to the final minutes). With those results, and home teams having a losing record this week, home teams have now lost more games than they have won for the season.

We saw that last year, home teams were also under .500 early in the season. Week 9 last year was the first time that they crossed over to having a winning record since Week 1 last year. At the conclusion of Week 9 in 2019, home teams were only 50.8% SU and 43.5% ATS through the first nine weeks of the season.

Over the previous five seasons (2015-2019), home teams have won 56.1% SU and 48.5% ATS in the first eight weeks.

So home teams are not winning, though they are covering the spread more than last year at the same point, likely due to oddsmakers accounting for reduced home field advantage in 2020.

2020 Point Spread Result Splits

Here’s how some of the more standard spilts look after Week 9:

Road teams are covering 53.4% of the time
Underdogs are covering 57.9% of the time
Combining those two categories, road underdogs are covering the spread 58.8% of the time in 2020
Despite the more general trend that road teams are covering at higher rates, home underdogs are 27-21 (56.2%) ATS
Underdogs in Division games are 29-16 ATS (64.4%)

2020 Scoring vs. Historical Seasons

We can say, now that we have surpassed the halfway point of the season, that 2020 should be the highest scoring season in NFL history. Games continue to average over 50 points scored per game, nearly four more points per game than 2013, when games averaged 46.8 points for the season.

Here’s a running tally of how overall NFL scoring so far in 2020 compares to the full season averages of recent seasons, based on average total points scored per game.

Average Points Scored Per Game, By Season

2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
49.4	45.6	46.7	43.4	45.6

Turnovers, Miscues & Failures: Week 9 Edition

In this section each week, we list a summary of drives that ended with turnovers, but not only official turnovers like interceptions and fumbles.

We also tally up other high-leverage events that likely led to either loss of points or great field position for an opponent. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field goal attempts.

Week 9 Team ATS Records Based On Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed 4th Down Attempts

Team	Turnovers	FG Miss	Downs	TOTAL	ATS Result
Tampa Bay	3	0	2	5	Loss
Indianapolis	2	0	2	4	Loss
Seattle	4	0	0	4	Loss
Washington	4	0	0	4	Loss
Detroit	2	1	0	3	Loss
Chicago	2	0	1	3	Loss
San Francisco	2	0	1	3	Loss
Denver	1	0	2	3	Loss
Pittsburgh	2	0	1	3	Loss
Arizona	1	1	1	3	Loss
New Orleans	2	0	1	3	Win
Minnesota	2	0	1	3	Win
Kansas City	1	1	0	2	Loss
Dallas	0	0	2	2	Win
Carolina	0	2	0	2	Win
Jacksonville	1	0	1	2	Win
New England	0	0	1	1	Loss
Houston	1	0	0	1	Loss
Baltimore	1	0	0	1	Win
NY Jets	1	0	0	1	Win
NY Giants	0	0	1	1	Win
Buffalo	0	1	0	1	Win
Atlanta	1	0	0	1	Win
Las Vegas	1	0	0	1	Win
LA Chargers	0	1	0	1	Loss
Green Bay	0	0	0	0	Win
Tennessee	0	0	0	0	Win
Miami	0	0	0	0	Win

Teams with 3 or more miscues ended up 2-10 ATS in Week 9, with the only two wins coming in games where the opponent also had three or more.

Teams with 1 or fewer miscues went 9-3 ATS with two of the losses coming in games where the opponent also had one or fewer. The only game that doesn’t qualify there is Houston, who failed to cover against Jacksonville despite having fewer miscues and facing a quarterback making his first career start.

Last week, we wrote an article about teams with extreme yards per point scored splits, which is indirectly measuring some of the same things that this section is monitoring. Teams that score a lot of points relative to their yards do so by minimizing mistakes and benefiting from their opponent’s mistakes.

The six teams with a net positive in this category for the season of +10 or better, entering Week 9, went 2-4 ATS in Week 9. The three teams in action (Philadelphia had a bye) who were a net negative of -10 or worse for the year coming into the week went 3-0 ATS.

Drive-Ending Miscues By Team: 2020 Season Tally

Here’s a summary of the full season so far showing the net number of drives ending in turnovers or miscues for each team.

As you can see, the top of this list, populated by teams that are better at avoiding mistakes so far, have a good spread record while the bottom does not.

Teams that are a net +10 or better on miscues so far this season are 27-13-1 ATS; teams that are a net -10 or worse are 12-22 ATS. However, past results may not be indicative of future outcomes, because this tells us what has happened so far.

In Week 9, there were two matchups between teams in the top and bottom of this list. Carolina and Dallas both covered big spreads against Kansas City and Pittsburgh, respectively, when they did not have a rash of mistakes in Week 9.

2020 Season Summary, Drives Ending in Turnovers or Other Failed Plays

Team	Mistakes	Opponent	Net	ATS Record
Miami	10	27	17	6-2
Baltimore	13	29	16	4-3-1
Pittsburgh	11	24	13	6-2
Kansas City	12	24	12	6-3
Seattle	12	22	10	5-3
Tampa Bay	15	23	8	4-4
Atlanta	15	22	7	4-5
Green Bay	9	15	6	6-2
New Orleans	10	15	5	4-4
Tennessee	12	17	5	3-5
Cincinnati	13	17	4	6-2
Buffalo	17	19	2	4-5
LA Rams	18	19	1	4-4
Houston	12	13	1	1-7
Arizona	16	16	0	5-3
NY Giants	19	18	-1	6-3
Chicago	21	19	-2	5-4
Indianapolis	17	14	-3	4-4
Detroit	17	13	-4	3-5
LA Chargers	16	12	-4	4-3-1
NY Jets	22	18	-4	2-7
San Francisco	20	15	-5	4-5
Washington	21	16	-5	3-4-1
New England	20	15	-5	3-5
Cleveland	18	12	-6	3-5
Las Vegas	12	6	-6	5-3
Minnesota	18	11	-7	5-3
Denver	26	17	-9	5-3
Carolina	19	9	-10	5-4
Jacksonville	25	13	-12	3-5
Philadelphia	27	15	-12	3-5
Dallas	29	14	-15	1-8

2020 NFL ATS & Over/Under Performance By Team

Finally, here are updated against the point spread and over/under records so far in 2020. You can check out more trends on our BetIQ NFL betting trends page.

2020 NFL ATS and O/U Records

Team	W	L	Streak ATS	Over	Under	Push	O/U Streak
Arizona	5	3	L1	2	6	0	O2
Atlanta	4	5	W2	5	4	0	O1
Baltimore	4	4	W1	3	5	0	U1
Buffalo	4	5	W1	6	2	1	O2
Carolina	5	4	W1	4	5	0	O1
Chicago	5	4	L1	3	6	0	U1
Cincinnati	6	2	W3	5	3	0	O3
Cleveland	3	5	L3	5	3	0	U1
Dallas	1	8	W1	4	5	0	U4
Denver	5	3	L1	5	3	0	O3
Detroit	3	5	L2	5	3	0	O2
Green Bay	6	2	W1	5	3	0	O2
Houston	1	7	L3	5	3	0	O1
Indianapolis	4	4	L1	4	4	0	U1
Jacksonville	3	5	W1	5	3	0	O2
Kansas City	6	3	L1	4	5	0	O1
LA Chargers	5	3	L2	5	3	0	O5
LA Rams	4	4	L1	2	6	0	U5
Las Vegas	5	3	W2	6	1	1	O1
Miami	6	2	W4	3	5	0	O1
Minnesota	5	3	W2	6	2	0	O3
New England	3	5	L1	4	4	0	O2
New Orleans	3	5	W1	7	1	0	U1
NY Giants	6	3	W3	3	6	0	U1
NY Jets	2	7	W1	4	5	0	O1
Philadelphia	3	5	W1	4	4	0	U2
Pittsburgh	6	2	L1	4	3	1	U1
San Francisco	4	5	L2	5	4	0	O2
Seattle	5	3	L1	7	1	0	O4
Tampa Bay	4	5	L2	5	4	0	U1
Tennessee	3	5	W1	5	2	1	U1
Washington	4	4	L1	3	5	0	U1