NFL Week 14 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)

December 16, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

NFL Week 14 started with a low-scoring game between the Rams and Patriots. It finished with the highest scoring game of the year (and what many are calling the game of the year so far) between Baltimore and Cleveland.

Here are some key observations for NFL bettors that we cover in this post:

• The Cleveland Browns have now been part of the two highest scoring games of the season, and also two of the three lowest scoring games.
• San Francisco and Washington combined for 30 offensive possessions, 24 points scored on offense, and 14 points scored by the Washington defense.
• Las Vegas fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther after Indianapolis scored on 7 of 8 offensive drives.
• Under Streaks: Lots of teams are on long streaks of games going Under the total points line.

We’ll also examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 14, but also some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading. This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams are setting up well to cover the spread in the future.

To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.

NFL Week 14 By the Betting Numbers

• Biggest upset: Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans (+7.5, +320 money line)
• Biggest ATS cover margin: Chicago over Houston (+30, won by 29 points as 1-point underdog)
• Most points above over/under line: Cleveland-Baltimore (+43, 89 total points vs. O/U line of 46)
• Most points below over/under line: LA Rams-New England (-16.5, 27 total points vs. O/U line of 43.5)
• Most points scored vs. team expectation: Baltimore (47 points vs. 24.5 expected)
• Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: New England Patriots (3 points vs. 19.25 expected)

Cleveland Highs and Lows

The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens combined for 89 points in the Monday Night game, which was already tied for the highest scoring game of the season even before the safety on the final play (which just might have been really important to some betting interests).

The game it was tied with, before that safety? Cleveland 49, Dallas 38.

So the Cleveland Browns have now been part of the two highest scoring games of the year, and their win at Tennessee two weeks ago is the seventh-highest scoring game of the year.

Making that stat even more remarkable is that Cleveland has also been part of the lowest scoring game of the year, and two of the three lowest. The Browns beat Houston 10-7, and lost to Las Vegas 16-6, at home in November during a two-week stretch in which both games were impacted by bad weather conditions.

San Francisco-Washington Combine for Lots of Unproductive Drives

The 23-15 final score in the San Francisco-Washington game may not seem remarkable, but this game was one of the worst offensive performances of the year by two teams combined, once you account for the number of drives:

• San Francisco had 16 total drives and scored 15 points.
• Washington had 14 total drives and scored 9 points (all field goals).

The reason Washington had two fewer drives is because they had two defensive touchdowns that accounted for the difference in the final score.

Isolating it to just offensive scoring, Washington and San Francisco combined for 30 offensive possessions resulting in 24 points (0.8 points per possession). For some perspective there, the NFL average this year is 2.2 points per drive, and the New York Jets are averaging 1.3 points per drive for the season.

Washington won a game where they had just 193 yards, 12 first downs, and 9 points scored on offense. They averaged 13.8 yards per drive, and had only one drive with more than two first downs. Their last first down came with 6:24 left in the third quarter, and the score at 16-7.

Las Vegas Fires Defensive Coordinator After Allowing Too Many Productive Drives

On the other side of the spectrum, the Las Vegas Raiders fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther after their 44-27 loss at home to Indianapolis in a crucial game for the Raiders’ playoff hopes.

A week after giving up 28 points to the Jets but surviving with a win, the Raiders could not stop the Colts at all.

Indianapolis had eight total offensive possessions outside of the final possession kneel downs, and scored on seven of them. The Colts gained at least 68 yards on six of those seven scoring drives, and had over 200 yards rushing on the day.

Under Streaks