NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)

NFL Betting Week 13

Adrian Peterson celebrated the Bears' ineptitude (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

NFL Week 13 featured some big upsets, as Pittsburgh lost its first game and Seattle was upset by the Giants. It also featured lots of key wins by playoff contenders, plenty of close calls, and the true-to-form Jets snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Here are some key observations that we cover in this post:

  • The Patriots destroyed the Chargers 45-0, but that eye-opening result was driven by a lot of turnovers, mistakes, and big plays on special teams.
  • The NFC East provided the two biggest upsets of the week as the Giants and Washington won against Super Bowl contenders.
  • San Francisco’s weird season continues, and the 49ers now have a better record as an underdog than as a favorite.
  • Chicago’s slide hit six games as the Bears blew a 10-point lead to Detroit, the same team they started off the year beating, thanks to a big comeback.

In this post, we’ll examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 13, but also review some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading. This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams may be setting up well to cover the spread in the future.

(We’ll note that we are still waiting on the Dallas-Baltimore game, which will be played tonight, so all summary results for Week 13 below will exclude that result. We’ll update the post after that game.)

To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.

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NFL Week 13 By the Betting Numbers

  • Biggest upset: New York Giants over Seattle (+11, +485 money line)
  • Biggest ATS cover margin: New England over Los Angeles Chargers (+47, won by 45 points as 2-point underdog)
  • Most points above over/under line: Cleveland-Tennessee (+22, 76 total points vs. O/U line of 54)
  • Most points below over/under line: New York Giants-Seattle (-19.5, 29 total points vs. O/U line of 48.5)
  • Most points scored vs. team expectation: New England (45 points vs. 22.25 expected)
  • Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Los Angeles Chargers (0 points vs. 24.25 expected)

The Chargers-Patriots Anomaly

The New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Chargers 45-0 in Week 13, the biggest margin of the week. But what’s notable about this blowout is that the yardage was very close.

The Patriots scored on a punt return touchdown and a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. The Chargers threw two interceptions, while New England fumbled twice but recovered both of them. The Chargers missed another field goal, and failed on fourth down over and over.

In the end, New England scored 45 points with 291 yards of offense. The Chargers scored zero points with 258 yards of offense.

Over the last 50 seasons, there have been only 13 games where a team has won by 40 or more points, while gaining less than 100 yards more than the opponent. (Source: StatHead)

New England’s 45-0 margin is tied for the 2nd-highest scoring margin in a game where the teams were within 100 yards of each other. The only other game higher was Green Bay’s 52-3 win over New Orleans in 2005. Seattle also beat Kansas City by an identical 45-0 score in 1984, when they had four pick-six touchdowns.

This game is also the largest margin in our “Turnovers and Miscues” chart for the year, as the Chargers are credited with 7 drives ending in miscues, to the Patriots’ zero.

Bottom line: NFL bettors should recognize that this result was quite an anomaly, with plenty of good fortune on New England’s side.

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