NFL Week 10 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)

Week 10 NFL Betting

Jameis Winston will get some starts for New Orleans after Drew Brees fractured ribs on Sunday (Photo by Dan Anderson/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

NFL Week 10 saw favorites finally cover at a high rate, and home teams reverse recent trends of struggling to win and cover. Weather continued to impact some games in the Midwest and Northeast as well.

Here are some key observations that we cover in this post:

  • Revenge of home teams and favorites: After some losing weeks, home teams bounced back in a big way in Week 10, as did favorites.
  • Drew Lock, turnover machine: The Denver-Las Vegas game was actually close at halftime, but Drew Lock turnovers turned it into a rout and an easy cover for the Raiders.
  • Tom Brady Bounce Back Game: Tampa Bay put up only 3 points last week, but came out with a little different result this week.
  • Drew Brees’ injury means it’s Jameis Time: The Saints beat the 49ers, but Drew Brees suffered broken ribs and will be out for a stretch now, as the Saints fight for a top seed in the NFC.
  • Seattle’s loss further drops Russell Wilson MVP odds: Wilson still leads the league in passing TDs, but has committed 10 turnovers in 3 Seattle losses in the last four weeks.
  • Mistakes and Miscues, Week 10: The teams that covered (or did not) were highly related to which teams avoided turnovers and mistakes in Week 10.

In this post, we’ll examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 10, but also review some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading.

This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams may be setting up well to cover the spread in the future.

(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)

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NFL Week 10 By the Betting Numbers

  • Biggest upset: New England over Baltimore (+7, +275 money line)
  • Biggest ATS cover margin: Las Vegas over Denver (+21.5, won by 25 points as 3.5-point favorite)
  • Most points above over/under line: Tampa Bay-Carolina (+19.5, 69 total points vs. O/U line of 49.5)
  • Most points below over/under line: Cleveland-Houston (-29.5, 17 total points vs. O/U line of 46.5)
  • Most points scored vs. team expectation: Tampa Bay (46 points vs. 27.75 expected)
  • Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Cleveland (10 points vs. 25.5 expected)

Drew Lock, Turnover Machine

With the Raiders leading 10-6, Denver had a chance to either take the lead or at least get within a point with a field goal right before halftime. Instead, a two-play sequence during which (a) Lock ran for a touchdown but it was called back for a holding penalty, then (b) Lock threw a bad interception in the red zone, shifted the game.

Lock ended up throwing four interceptions in the loss, and Denver had five total turnovers as the game got out of hand in the second half. The 37-12 score margin was almost entirely the result of Denver mistakes. The two teams ended virtually even on first downs (21 to 20) and yards (357 to 313).

Turnovers, though, have been a problem for Lock all year. This is the fifth straight start where he has thrown at least one interception, and he’s now at 10 for the year, versus 7 touchdown passes. He may be on a short leash if the turnovers continue, but Denver’s other options are Jeff Driskel (6.1 career yards per attempt, 1-8 as starter) or Brett Rypien (4 interceptions on 40 attempts this year).

Tom Brady Bounce Back Game

Don’t count out Touchdown Tom after a stinker, even at age 43.

Brady threw three picks and the Bucs had three points last week. Yet he bounced back as Tampa Bay had 544 yards against Carolina and 46 points, the most of any team in Week 10 and the fifth-highest point total of the year so far. That means Tampa went from the lowest scoring team in Week 9 to the highest scoring team a week later.

For his career, Brady’s teams are now 7-2 SU and 7-2 ATS the game after he throws 3+ interceptions.

Jameis Time in New Orleans

Drew Brees has five fractured ribs and a collapsed lung, with some of those fractures the result of a sack taken right before halftime of Sunday’s game.

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