2012 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Predictions

posted in NHL

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs rolled around, we made first round NHL playoff predictions based on a slightly modified version of the power ratings we use for other sports.

Those predictions did fairly well. We disagreed with Vegas on two series, and went 1 for 2 on those picks, which means if you had simply bet on both of the underdogs that we favored, it would have been a profitable first round.

We pegged #3 Phoenix over #6 Chicago while Vegas favored the lower-seeded Blackhawks, but we were incorrect in predicting a #5 Detroit win over #4 Nashville. We — and Vegas — also correctly favored the #6 New Jersey Devils to top the #3 Florida Panthers in the first round, though we thought the series would be over a bit sooner.

Now that the second round is set, we’ve re-calculated the ratings. Here are our forecasts for the upcoming series.

This round features one predicted seed upset — #4 Nashville over #3 Phoenix. The Predators are also favored in Vegas.

Eastern: #1 New York Rangers vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Predicted Winner: #1 New York Rangers (69%)
Most Likely Outcome: Rangers in 5 (21%)

Eastern: #5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Predicted Winner: #5 Philadelphia Flyers (59%)
Most Likely Outcome: Flyers in 7 (18%)

Western: #2 St. Louis Blues vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Predicted Winner: #2 St. Louis Blues (69%)
Most Likely Outcome: Blues in 5 (21%)

Western: #3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #4 Nashville Predators

Predicted Winner: #4 Nashville Predators (56%)
Most Likely Outcome: Predators in 6 (22%)

  • Chris

    Do you have an overall prediction of the Stanley Cup winner?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The Blues are our highest-rated team, so they would have likely been the favorites at the start of this round, with about a 25% chance. Dropping the first game at home can have a large effect on the odds, though, so it’s tough to say exactly what their odds are at this point (especially since we don’t generally cover hockey).

    I’ll be sure to include Stanley Cup winner odds in the post for next round.