NFL Week 8 Rankings + Projections Update: Broncos, Texans Rising

October 24, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 8 Rankings and Projections Update

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 8 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured blowout wins the by the Broncos, Chiefs, Texans, and Colts.

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NFL Week 8 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 8. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Denver	AFC West	24	18	-2.3	-0.3	2.0
Kansas City	AFC West	5	2	4.4	6.0	1.6
Indianapolis	AFC South	27	22	-3.1	-1.8	1.3
LA Rams	NFC West	1	1	7.3	8.5	1.2
Houston	AFC South	19	15	-0.7	0.3	1.0

The Broncos had the biggest improvement after a 45-10 blowout win at Arizona. The win ended a four-game skid for Denver, with a visit to Kansas City ahead in Week 8.

Speaking of Kansas City, the Chiefs had the second biggest ratings increase and also jumped to #2 overall in our rankings after a 45-10 win of their own vs. Cincinnati. KC now only trails the Rams in our predictive ratings.

Indianapolis got some relief by facing Buffalo backup QB Derek Anderson, resulting in a 37-5 win last week. The Colts only had a 6.3-point advantage at home going into the matchup, according to our predictive ratings, but that didn’t account for the substitution of Anderson under center for the Bills.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 8 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 8:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Denver	AFC West	6.3	7.3	1.0
Houston	AFC South	8.2	9.0	0.8
Detroit	NFC North	6.8	7.6	0.8
Carolina	NFC South	8.3	9.1	0.8
Indianapolis	AFC South	5.9	6.6	0.7

Denver got a full projected win increase after their big win on at the road at Arizona, though we still don’t project them to finish .500. They might need more than seven wins for second-year head coach Vance Joseph to keep his job.

Detroit went into Miami and pulled out an 11-point margin of victory, something the Bears were unable to do in Week 6. The Lions were 1.7-point underdogs on the road, according to our predictive ratings. The Lions are still on the outside looking in on the playoffs with a 3-3 record and 7.6 projected wins, however.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 8 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Houston	AFC South	32.9%	56.6%	23.7%
Washington	NFC East	28.2%	45.5%	17.3%
New England	AFC East	70.9%	87.4%	16.5%
Minnesota	NFC North	34.1%	48.8%	14.7%
Pittsburgh	AFC North	29.0%	40.2%	11.2%

The Texans are now the favorites in a messy AFC South division after beating the division-rival Jaguars 20-7. After an 0-3 start, Houston has won four straight games, two coming against division foes.

With the help of a controversial false start call and late missed field goal by Dallas, Washington was able to get a big division win and increase their NFC East odds by 17%. The Redskins were the only team in the division to win last week and are also the only team in the division with a winning record (4-2).

New England doesn’t have their 10th straight AFC East title locked up, but it’s getting closer at 87% odds now. It would also be their 16th title since 2001.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 8 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Houston	AFC South	38.9%	62.2%	23.3%
Minnesota	NFC North	52.6%	66.4%	13.8%
Carolina	NFC South	39.1%	52.0%	12.9%
Washington	NFC East	42.4%	54.5%	12.1%
New England	AFC East	81.9%	93.1%	11.2%

After a subpar 4-12 season in 2017, the Texans could return to the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. They’re also projected to finish 9-7, the same record head coach Bill O’Brien had in his first three seasons with the team.

Minnesota is rounding into form after a sluggish 1-2-1 start to the season. The Vikings have won three straight games, including a big 37-17 win at the Jets last week. Chicago’s loss vs. New England puts Minnesota in the driver’s seat in the NFC North and gives them the third best odds to make the playoffs in the NFC.

Panthers fans have reason to believe after their second miracle victory in three weeks, a 21-17 win over the Eagles after trailing 17-0 at the start of the fourth quarter. The win was huge for the NFC playoff picture, giving the Panthers a tiebreaker win against the defending Super Bowl champs and keeping Carolina just one game behind New Orleans in the NFC South.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

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