Week 7 NFL Survivor Strategy: Options Are Limited, But Choice Is Clear

posted in NFL, NFL Survivor Pools

Welcome to the Week 7 installment of our series of Survivor advice columns, where we use a data-driven strategy to get an edge in NFL Survivor contests. This post includes analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models and other relevant data.

This discussion below is also meant to complement our Survivor Predictor tool, which provides a grid view of win odds predictions by week, from now until the end of the season. This presentation of prediction data will help you quickly grasp the current week’s best Survivor pick options, and will explain our logic in making our official pick.

Week 6 Survivor Strategy Review

Last week we saw a virtual tie for the best pick between the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals. The Packers gave you the best odds to survive and the best immediate expected value (EV), while the Bengals and Steelers both sacrificed some of that immediate survival value in exchange for saving Green Bay’s huge future value.

We ended up going with the Bengals, which looks like the right choice in retrospect, since all three won. We get to save Green Bay for another week.

As it turns out, nearly every favorite won last week, and certainly every popular pick did. The biggest upset was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New Orleans Saints, which knocked out a minuscule 1.7% of Yahoo! contestants.

Overall, over 96% of remaining players survived, which means anyone in a small pool who burned Green Bay in the hopes of watching some of their few remaining opponents bite the dust is now at a slight disadvantage.

So, not a great week in terms of paring people down, but we’re happy with our choice. Hey, not every Sunday can go as well as the last one.

Week 7 Survivor Decision Factors

Time for the heart of our post, the table showing the factors that influence our decision.

Keep in mind the change we made last week — the Future Value column now shows the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or more. Previously it showed the number of games in which the team was expected to have win odds higher than the current week. (In other words, we’ve switched from relative future value to absolute future value):

TeamOpponentSpreadTR OddsYahoo! Pick %Future ValNotes
New Orleansvs Indianapolis-14.089%30.0%2
Dallasvs St Louis-13.084%44.7%1
Green Bay@ Minnesota-9.076%2.2%7
Baltimore@ Jacksonville-9.066%16.6%5
Oaklandvs Kansas City-4.571%2.5%1QB situation
Tennesseevs Houston-3.562%0.1%2
Detroitvs Atlanta-3.559%0.9%3
Pittsburgh@ Arizona-3.559%2.1%2USED
Clevelandvs Seattle-3.065%0.5%0
Carolinavs Washington-1.057%0.4%0
Miamivs Denver-1.056%0.2%0
San Diego@ NY Jets-1.050%0.1%0USED
Chicago@ Tampa Bay-1.042%0.1%1
Tampa Bayvs Chicago+1.058%0.2%0USED
NY Jetsvs San Diego+1.050%0.1%1

Future Val = the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or greater, based on our NFL Survivor Tool.

Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (W), Pittsburgh Steelers (W), San Diego Chargers (W), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (W), New England Patriots (W), Cincinnati Bengals (W)

Weighing the Options

New Orleans Saints (vs Indianapolis Colts) — The Saints are the safest choice of the week, in terms of the Vegas line and TR win odds. And they have surprisingly little future value. Look at the Saints’ toughest remaining games; only next week at St. Louis is in the same ballpark as this week. But next week we ought to have other good options in the 49ers or Titans. The only negative is that 30% of the public is picking them. But that’s not the highest value this week, and it’s not so high to be an automatic no. They could be a good conservative pick.

Dallas Cowboys (vs St Louis Rams) — The Cowboys are the most popular pick of the week, mostly because basically none of the remaining contestants have picked them, and they have slightly less future value than the Saints. They have a worse Vegas line and worse TR win odds compared to the Saints, but are being picked by more people. From a game theory standpoint, it’s pretty clear we should avoid from the Cowboys this week, and hope for an upset. (This doesn’t get our official STAY AWAY grade, though, as there are not all that many legit options this week, and the Cowboys do have the least future value out of those.)

Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota Vikings) — The Packers obviously have tons of future value, so we’d hate to lose that. But only 2% of players are choosing them, which means — unlike the Saints, Cowboys, or Ravens — there is no added value in avoiding them and hoping for an upset. In terms of immediate EV, they are neck and neck with the Saints. The Packers have lower win odds, but siding with Green Bay over New Orleans means we have another 30% chunk of opponents that might get bounced. This would be a risky pick — if none of the other upsets occur, you’ve blown a huge asset for no gain. But the Packers are definitely an intriguing pick.

Baltimore Ravens (@ Jacksonville Jaguars) — Remember the analogy section from the SAT? Well … Baltimore : Green Bay :: Dallas : New Orleans. The Ravens have lower win odds than the Packers, and more people are picking them, but you would be burning slightly less of your future options. However, that 5 versus 7 in the Future Val column above may be a bit misleading. The Packers have more fairly easy weeks left, but the Ravens have more very easy weeks left, as they still host Arizona, Indianapolis, and Cleveland. Given that the future value is close, we’d take the Packers over the Ravens if you’re looking to avoid the most popular teams.

Oakland Raiders (vs Kansas City Chiefs) — This game is listed because we want to make sure and point out that our TR Odds this week are probably off for Oakland. Our models have no idea that Jason Campbell is out for the year, so we trust the Vegas line here far more than our own odds. Given that line (-4.5), there’s no way we’re picking the Raiders. It’s far too risky.

ALL OTHER TEAMS — Nobody else is favored by even 4 points, or has TR win odds over 65%. You’re giving up far too much immediate value, just to save a bit of future value. STAY AWAY.

Official Pick: New Orleans Saints over Indianapolis Colts

This week is a fairly easy choice. We get to take the safest team in terms of both the Vegas line and our TR win odds.

Plus, we’re giving up fairly little in future value (especially since there are other good options in their easiest week).

PLUS, despite those benefits they aren’t even the most popular team this week, as that honor goes to Dallas.

There are probably two reasons why the Saints are less popular than the Cowboys. First, a good chunk of contestants already used New Orleans in Week 4 (Jacksonville) or Week 5 (Carolina). Second, last week’s upset loss to Tampa Bay is fresh in the public’s mind.

Whatever the reason, we’ll grab this chance to back the biggest favorite, while also avoiding the most popular pick. It’s a win-win situation. Or, hopefully, win-loss.

One note: given the way the win odds, future value, and public pick percentages are laid out in the Yahoo! pool, New Orleans is the clear first choice, followed by a rough tie between Green Bay and Dallas, with Baltimore bringing up the rear.

But changing those pick percentage can drastically alter which the best choice is. For example, if you switch the pick% of the Saints and Cowboys, Dallas becomes the better choice (or at least as good).

The easiest one-size fits all advice here is that if one team is being picked by — to use a scientific term — “way more” people than they are in the Yahoo! pool, you should drop them down a tier. Ditto for the reverse. If way fewer people are picking a team, bump them up a tier.

For example, say you’re confident only 20% of people are picking Dallas. Then, they become as attractive as New Orleans. Or, if 15% or on the Packers, they’re suddenly no better than the Ravens.

So, if you know the percentages in your pool are different than above, try to use that rule of thumb to come up with more personalized tiers that fit your situation.

Of course, as always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.

  • EmeraldMurphy

    down to final 4 in a pool that started with 30+My team is the first column and leanings towards your advice as it has served me well so far, but hard to judge other teams at this point given the small sample size, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 3rd team is following a similar strategy to yours, (teams 2 and 4 seem less correlated?) – Given no one has burned the Saints yet, does that change anything or in such a small pool, is it really a minor issue and focus on each week EV rather than separation from pack.
    Week 1 Arizona Arizona San Diego Philadelphia Week 2 Pittsburgh Dallas NY Jets NY Jets Week 3 San Diego Carolina Pittsburgh Baltimore Week 4 Tampa Bay Atlanta Tampa Bay Green Bay Week 5 New England New Orleans New England San Diego Week 6Green BayGreen BayGreen BayOaklandWeek 7New Orleans?

  • EmeraldMurphy

    Trying again for table formatting (and typo, team 2 has used NO and Dallas)
    Team 1) AZ, Pitt, SD, TB, New England, GB
    Team 2) AZ, Dallas, Carolina, Atlanda, New Orleans, GB
    Team 3) SD, NYJ, Pitt, TB, New England, GB
    Team 4) Phi, NYJ, Balt, GB, SD, Oakland

  • guest

    Hi, thanks for your good advice.  We have a group that owns a number of picks and try to come up with consensus.  I don’t think you’ve had to answer this before, but what if you have multiple entries?  Are you better off spreading them around or going more bold and picking the same game on a given week?

    This week, it is pretty simple.  We have two separate tickets/entries left, and we’re in a big pool with 120 survivors out of 900.  We have not picked NO or Dallas.  I have been on NO all week and had figured (reading you every week) that you’d be on NO.  I’m guessing 40% of our pool willl be on Dallas and say 30% on NO.  If you had two separate entries, would you put both on NO, or one on NO and one on Dallas?  These are interesting debates. Appreciate the help.


  • Daniel

    What if I don’t know the pick %’s before we have to get our pick in?  My pool is a 3 losses out pool and I have 2 losses.  5 have 0 29 have 1 and 48 of us have 2 losses.  So far 7 people have picked the Saints and 2 have picked Dallas up to this point.  Last week the majority pick was the Raiders followed by the Steelers and then Cincinnati.  The pool usually lasts until the postseason.  I have thought about taking the Raiders this week but like you said it’s a big gamble.  Would you take the Saints in my pool?  Thanks!

  • Daniel

    I forgot to mention the Jets last week…it was 25 Raiders, 18 Steelers, 17 Jets, 13 Bengals.  Thanks!

  • Geddy1001

    Hey guys,

    Still in two pools:

    #1 – Only one other person left, and they have picked NO and have not picked Dallas yetalready..Im assuming this is a no brainer for me since I have not used NO yet? (also have not used Dallas yet

    #2 – 5 others left – Nobody has used Dallas (including myself) and 3 of the other 5 have used NO (I have not)  Would this be another NO no brainer? Wouldnt be suprised if the other two picked NO.  Thanks!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Emerald —

    “focus on each week EV rather than separation from pack. ”  … I think perhaps I didn’t explain things well. EV depends on separation from the pack, so you can’t focus on one over the other.

    To make this simple, assume that #2 still had everybody available. If all three of your opponents pick New Orleans, the smart pick is Dallas. Your win odds are slightly lower, which means that the chance of (DAL W & NO L) is slightly lower than the chance of (NO W & DAL L). However, if the first situation occurs, you win the pool, while if you had picked NO and the second situation occurs, you haven’t gained anything. So the current win odds for NO are higher, but the EV for Dallas is higher.

    SO …
    If you think both #3 and #4 will pick NO, I’d pick DAL.
    If you think one of them will pick DAL, and one will pick NO, I’d pick NO.
    If you think both will pick DAL, I’d go with NO.
    If you think one of the teams will go unpicked by either, go with that one.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Guest —

    If there are multiple reasonable picks (like this week), you should definitely split the picks. That’s the main benefit of having multiple picks — you can spread the risk around, and you need TWO upsets to occur in order to get knocked out, rather than just one.

    Now, some weeks there is such a great pick that it can outweigh that factor, but I don’t think this is one of those weeks. NO isn’t head and shoulders above the rest.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


    Your pools is s far off from a normal pool that you can’t really use the analysis above at all. That’s evidenced from your pick distribution last week. Not even close to our Yahoo! distribution.

    Obviously extending into the playoffs means you’ll need to save great teams for the playoffs, so Green Bay and Baltimore are out.

    The multiple losses means that avoiding popular teams isn’t quite as important (since the benefit of them losing is lowered — not as many people get truly eliminated). So that makes DAL and NO a bit more attractive. But NO has slightly more playoff value.

    I’d say your pool will be all over DAL this week. A lot used the Raiders last week. … It MIGHT be worth gambling on the Raiders. Hard to say without running numbers.

    I’d say NO is your best pick, but OAK or DAL are reasonable as well.

  • guest

    Thanks very much!

  • Anonymous

    Hi David,

    I ended up picking Cincy in the original pool and Oakland in the second chance pool. I chose to save Pitt to wait and see if they will make the playoffs.  Week 16 vs Rams played into that decision.  So now I’m at a loss for this week.  Planning strategy last week left the option for using Oakland this week.  Green Bay, New Orleans and Baltimore are probably the 3 Super Bowl faves, so I’d prefer to save them.  Dallas seems to be the obvious pick, but I’m afraid that even more people will be on them than the 61% on the Giants week 5.  Plus if I don’t pick Dallas, they play the Dolphins Thanksgiving Day (week 12).  The only other seemingly obvious pick for week 12 (who knows what the future brings) is San Diego vs Denver, but I’ve already used the Chargers (maybe ATL vs Vikes).  I’m thinking about Miami.  But they looked especially lifeless on national TV vs their hated rival.  Embarrassingly so).  It would be more a pick against Denver (3rd string QB making first start this year in new system, no rushing attack, just traded their best WR).  But that would be a gut call.  Basically ignoring the data.  So Miami is probably out, even though the data doesnt account for the loss of Brandon Lloyd or a new QB.  In my mind, it probably comes down to Dallas or New Orleans.  Should I burn New Orleans or should I just go with the flow and pick Dallas and worry about week 12 when we get there?  Or maybe another suggestion?  I am leaning towards picking New Orleans in the original, more important pool and Dallas in the second chance pool since only Oakland has been used there.  This leaves me Dallas available for week 12, a week in which there may be limited options and most of the pool will have already used Dallas, my probable pick there.  Many have already used San Diego, as I have.  So week 12 may prove to elimnate a good chunk. Saving Dallas may prove to be wise.  But using New Orleans may prove to be unwise.  What to do?  Leaning towards New Orleans. 

    Remember, we go into the playoffs and do not reset.  Still approx 1,000 left.  Already used: Houston, Washington, San Diego, Tampa, Minnesota, Cincinnatti. 



  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Geddy —

    #1 — Yep, you’re right. No brainer. New Orleans.
    #2 — This one is a near no-brainer. Given that NO has slightly better odds than DAL, you should only pick DAL if you think the total picking Dallas (INCLUDING YOURSELF) will be lower than the total picking NO. So, if you think nobody else will pick Dallas (seems unlikely), then you should take them yourself.

    I also thought about Green Bay for #2, but GB winning while the other two lose only happens ~1.5% of the time. And that’s the only case where picking GB would have been better than both of the other two.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


    If you think over 60% will be on Dallas, avoid them, especially since they don’t have THAT much less playoff value than the Saints. (See http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-6-nfl-projections-update-eagles-jets-cling-to-life-49ers-prove-they-are-a-power)

    I don’t have time to do a thorough analysis, but a quick look seems to say NO is a reasonable choice. Others would be OAK or DAL, or if you want to take a huge gamble, CLE.

  • Guest

    My pool is down to 15 and they have all used GB except me, about half have NO as an option and no one has used DAL.  Do I still go NO or burn GB and hope for a miracle?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The odds of your miracle are pretty low (~1.5%). Since Green Bay has so much future value, I think the smart move is to go with New Orleans. The math makes their immediate EV even out if around 5 people are on NO and the rest on DAL. But that doesn’t take into account GB’s great future value.

    Check out week 8 and 10 here: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tools/survivor-predictor/ If a lot of your pool uses SF next week, You could be the only one on GB in week 10, and many of them would be giving up 12% or more to you in win odds.

    I’d say GB is an acceptable choice if you’re sure more than 5 opponents will be on NO, but I would still lean slightly towards NO there.

  • http://twitter.com/drumzan drumzan

    I think Carolina is an intriguing pick.  John Beck at QB, Cooley’s out and one of the Skins OG’s is done for the year…it’s uber risky, but the reward is big for picking the Panthers.

  • MakaveliTheDon

    43 people left in my pool. Have already used Packers and Saints, so they are not an option this week. I am between Cowboys/Ravens/Raiders this week. Don’t want to take Raiders due to the QB uncertainty as you mentioned. So, basically I’m between Cowboys and Ravens. Leaning toward Cowboys as they are at home vs a winless team and Ravens are on road, plus Ravens have more future value left for rest of season. David, do you agree in my case I should go with Dallas?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Survivor pools are all about risk management, and the risk/reward ratio. Unless you think the Vegas line is terribly off (which would be unusual, but not impossible), the risk of picking Carolina is way too high. There’s no accompanying reward.

    Compare them to New Orleans. As a ratio, New Orleans’ win odds are 56% higher than Carolina’s (89%/57%). That is huge.

    What you get in return is a roughly 10% chance that 30% of your competitors will be knocked out. Even if it was a 100% chance they’d be knocked out, that would only increase your chance of winning by 42%! (That’s the people alive now divided by the people alive if New Orleans loses, or 100% divided by 70%.). You’re really getting only about one tenth of that value, or about 4%. And then THAT value is ONLY if Carolina wins.

    The other benefit of picking Carolina would of course be that they have less future value. But by playing around with our Survivor tool, you can pretty easily convince yourself it’s not enough to increase your odds of winning the pool by 50%.

    So, I would strongly advise against picking Carolina.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yep, I think that’s the right choice. As mentioned above, I think the ranking this week is:

    1. Saints
    2. Cowboys and Packers roughly equal
    3. Ravens

    Barring any weirdness in your pool, Dallas is a good choice, given the teams you have left.

  • Steelers GO!!!

    Hey I’m back. The Washington guy got out, but my pool still has the craziest pick history in the world, thus the request for specific help. 

    A reminder of the group’s picks

    Player 1: ARI, BUF, SDG, GNB, CIN, NYJPlayer 2: SDG, PIT, TEN, GNB, NOR, OAK, Player 3: ARI, PIT, SDG, NWE, NOR, NYJ
    Player 4: ARI, DET, TEN, SDG, CIN, PIT

    I’d guess at least player 2 and 3 would pick Dallas, but knowing this pool, who knows? 

    In short, the Saints are probably the best pick for me, right?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yeah, I think I proved that I can’t predict what your opponents will do, so it’s probably safest to just play the win odds and go with New Orleans.

  • Steelers GO!!!

    Thanks again then. 

  • Rockspringsguru

    5 people left
    i used carol,tb,pitt,cin
    #2person sd tb det pitt
    #3 pitt gb ne balt
    #4 sd gb no pitt
    #5 pitt tb ne gb
    what do i do or is the best move?

  • http://twitter.com/gunz4sale Ray P

    I’ve already used the Saints and the only other person in my league has too. Any other suggestions?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Guru — I think I must be missing something. Why are only 4 teams listed for each player? Anyway, I’ll assume those are the only teams picked by each.

    In that case, New Orleans seems like the pick. Was there something about your pool that you specifically thought was a reason not to choose them, that I might be overlooking?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    With only 1 other player, you’re in an interesting situation. The best pick in terms of *immediate* EV will ALWAYS be the team with the best chance of winning. Even if he chooses New Orleans, according to EV you should still pick them, since otherwise it is a horse race with you having the slower horse.

    The only thing that should make you consider picking a worse team is future value. Of course, with only one person left, the later weeks become less important, and you should be thinking more about only the next few weeks.

    In this case, I think Dallas is the pick. Then, going forward, I’d take the team most likely to win, UNLESS picking a team that is only slightly less likely sets you up for much better choices over the next couple weeks.

  • Bob L

    HI David. How can you be so high on Oakland (even against KC) when they’re using a QB with 3 or 4 days practice and no real game seasoning/conditioning?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Bob — I don’t see how what we wrote about the game translates to us being “high on Oakland”:

    “This game is listed because we want to make sure and point out that our TR Odds this week are probably off for Oakland. Our models have no idea that Jason Campbell is out for the year, so we trust the Vegas line here far more than our own odds. “

  • Rockspringsguru

    started late
    just trying to save best for last

  • Mark

    Once again great analysis. My pool has 26 left.

    23 have used GB
    16 have used NO
    No one left has used Dallas.
    I have used SD – DET – TEN – TB – NE – PIT

    I am taking NO and hoping for a week 6 Seattle occurrence but find BAL interesting. Because I have used TEN already and with the limited choices coming up in the next week, would that change using BAL now and saving NO?

    My pool is just under 20% but some of the remaining player picks were weird. As an example here are some of the lines:

    ARI – NYG – SF- CHI – NO – GB
    PHI – NYG – BAL – NO – GB – OAK
    SF – PIT – SD – TB – DET – CIN

    Is it me or does the timing seem strange? And is there a way for me to use this seeming randomness to my advantage?



  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Mark, Next week looks to have plenty of choices. See:

    I imagine it will be similar to this week, with many people on a few teams — SF, TEN, BAL, NO. You would definitely get to play NO with less others next week, but you’d be taking a win% hit both this week and next week, so I’d still lean towards NO now. But it’s not like Baltimore is a terrible pick this week.

    As for using the randomness to your advantage — only way I can think of to do that is by making safe choices, and letting their random picks bite them in the rear.

  • Mike

    Love the weekly post!  After reading for several weeks I already knew that NYG was a bad idea, but that week’s post confirmed it and that upset wiped out over 80% of my pool!  I didn’t fully follow your advice the past two weeks and went with NO in week 5 because didn’t think the NE game was as big of a lock as the spread said (I was wrong) and last week went with GB because we are down to 7 left in my pool…but none were knocked out, so I’m in a tough spot this week….here are the details.

    I’ve used GB, NO, Pit, SD,TB, Hou…of the remaining entires

    5 have used GB
    4 have used NO
    1 has used Bal
    no one has used Dallas

    It’s obviously Dallas or Baltimore…I already hate both picks, but can you make me more comfortable with either???

  • swank

    sam bradford ruled out against dallas.  i think dallas just became slightly more valuable than NO imo.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Mike — I can tell you what the math says about your immediate EV.

    This ignores future value entirely, plus assumes that 1 guy will pick NO, and the rest will be split between DAL and BAL:If 3 or less of your opponents pick DAL, then DAL has higher EVIf exactly 4 pick DAL, then it’s a toss up.If 5 or 6 pick DAL, then BAL has higher EV.

    Given those scenarios, I think I’d go with Dallas. Because of the lower win odds for Baltimore, the only way the Ravens are the better choice is if nearly everybody picks Dallas. And even then, we haven’t taken future value into account, and the Ravens have more of that.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    If Bradford is out, that definitely boosts Dallas’s win odds. Of course, I’d guess it also boosts the number of people picking them.

    That definitely makes Dallas more attractive than they were, but remember that New Orleans was a solidly better choice up until now. Doing a quick back of the envelope calculation, it looks like GIVEN THE PICK % LISTED ABOVE (in caps because that’s an important caveat), Dallas needs to have win odds of about 90% (equivalent to a line of about -16) in order to match New Orleans’s expected value. That is a pretty big jump, but Bradford is pretty important, so who knows.

  • RCC22

    hi..just found your blog…

    im in a big pool…started with 685…down to 100 thanks to the seahawks knocking out the g-men. This week….so far…64% ofthe pool is in favor of Dallas (roughly 48 people) followed by Saints and Ravens. Ive used the saints and green Bay….Im leaning towards the Cowboys…but thought maybe Ravens..hate itwhen the majority of pool takes one team. (ex: Giants..than get knocked out ala Seaheaks)

    any advice?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    If the rest of your pool picks are distributed like Yahoo (unlikely, since the Dallas value is so far off), then DAL & BAL have about equal immediate EV, but Dallas has less future value, so I guess I would have to lean DAL.

    That’s surprising to me, as my gut said BAL. So I checked an alternative pick distribution, that was skewed more towards favorites, and that still said DAL and BAL had equal EV.

    So the math apparently says DAL, even though so many people are on them. (Well, the math really says GB or NO, but those are obviously not options.)

    Bottom line is that either are acceptable. BAL is a bigger risk and reward, and DAL is the safer pick. The math isn’t strongly in favor of either.

  • rcc22

    thanks for the reply back…like i said..im leaning with Dallas…i have until early tomorrow to select ….. 

  • Geddy1001

    Just wanted to say Thank you!  Ended up winning one of my pools this evening with the Ravens going down.  Really thought my opponent was going to go with the Cowboys but alas…Now onto a hopeful victory in my other one.  Thanks again guys!

  • Killerzoe

    Did well with my cowboys pick…now week 8? Leaning with the 49ers or Titans?


  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Geddy — Congrats! Glad we could be helpful. Seems like we’ve got a lot of winners this year :)

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Killer — I haven’t given it even 1 second of thought yet. There’s no point in rushing to a decision when we still have a couple days to wait for the Vegas lines to adjust (or just come out in the first place), the Yahoo pick % to stabilize, injury news to drop, etc.

    Judging by our Survivor Tool, there are quite a few reasonable choices this week:

    That means the public pick data and future value will play an even bigger role than normal, so definitely worth waiting to see what your opponents may be doing.

  • MakaveliTheDon

    Week 8 is tough to choose between. Titans, Giants, Ravens, Texans, Bills, 49ers all solid. Ravens and 49ers have the most future value, then the Texans. Bills have easier games against Miami in future too. The 2 teams where week 8 is the best option all year to pick the team are the Titans/Giants. I’m thinking Giants as there is literally no other opportunity to pick them the rest of the year, they are coming off a bye and getting Tuck/Jacobs back, and they play one of the few remaining winless teams in the league at home in a non-divisional game. I think Titans is riskier as it’s a divisional game and they haven’t been playing well and just got blown out by 34 points last game. Any thoughts, David?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Don — See my answer to Killer immediately below. Lots of good options. No reason to choose now.

  • Cory Fantasyteam

    My pool that started at 2750 is now down to 67, thanks!!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Cory — Nice! Your entry is now worth about 41 times what you paid for it. :)

  • Killerzoe

    David i agree…i usually wait until Sunday to make my pick…but Giants…Ravens and 49ers seem like the best..also..my pool has this unique situation: You can only pick TWICE against the same team. Ex: Cant keep picking the teams playing the Colts..only twice can u pick against them…so this makes picking the games a little more trickier?….

  • Killerzoe

    wow…looks like a NICE pot of gold awaiting the winner in this pool..good luck!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Wow, yeah. That rule would COMPLETELY change the strategy and pick distributions.

  • Killerzoe

    yup….the guy who runs the pool changed this rule last year..the years before ..there would be too many at the end of the pool….this also..makes it a better chance the pool could possibly be over by weeks 12 and 14?…

  • AM

    for Yahoo and ESPN, so the pick percentages reflect only perfect entries or do they include every entry since the start of the challenge?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yahoo includes only perfect entries. Not sure whether ESPN includes non-perfect entries, but they let you pick ahead of time. You can pick Week 17 now if you want to. That throws off the numbers, which is why we stopped using ESPN values.