NFL Week 5 Rankings + Projections Update: Bears Surge, Patriots Back?

October 3, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 5 Rankings and Projections

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 5 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured some dominating victories by teams including the Bears and Patriots.

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NFL Week 5 Rankings Updates

Here are biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 5. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Chicago	NFC North	21	12	-1.2	1.3	2.5
New England	AFC East	5	2	3.0	4.7	1.7
Green Bay	NFC North	16	14	0.0	1.1	1.1
Baltimore	AFC North	6	4	2.9	3.9	1.0
Jacksonville	AFC South	9	6	1.8	2.7	0.9

The Bears had a huge jump (both in rating and ranking) after clobbering Tampa Bay 48-10 at Soldier Field. One of the early surprises of 2018, Chicago now leads the NFC North at 3-1.

All is right again in Foxborough (for now, at least) after the Patriots smacked AFC East leader Miami 38-7. New England started the year as our No. 1 ranked team and are back to No. 2, rebounding from two consecutive losses.

Green Bay also had a 1.1-point rating increase after shutting out the Bills 22-0. However, that ratings increase only moved up the Packers two spots in the rankings.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 5 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 5:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Chicago	NFC North	8.3	9.6	1.3
Baltimore	AFC North	9.1	10.1	1.0
Cincinnati	AFC North	8.5	9.5	1.0
New England	AFC East	9.1	10.0	0.9
Houston	AFC South	6.6	7.4	0.8

Chicago is now projected for a winning record for the season, which would be their first winning season since 2012. What a difference a new head coach and Khalil Mack can make…

Cincinnati is also coming off of two straight losing seasons, but the Bengals are the surprising leader of the AFC North at 3-1. The Bengals won at Atlanta with a late touchdown, a game in which they were 5-point underdogs according to our predictive ratings and 3.5-point underdogs in the betting markets.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
New England	AFC East	42.0%	68.5%	26.5%
Chicago	NFC North	29.1%	47.6%	18.5%
Baltimore	AFC North	32.3%	48.7%	16.4%
New Orleans	NFC South	33.4%	49.6%	16.2%
Cincinnati	AFC North	24.9%	34.4%	9.5%

Not many people gave the 3-1 Bears a fighting chance to win the NFC North entering the year; we had Chicago’s division winner odds at 11% in the preseason. However, they’re now the clear favorites over the 2-1-1 Packers and 1-2-1 Vikings. Chicago last won the division in 2010, and is a miracle Aaron Rodgers Week 1 comeback away from being 4-0 so far.

Things are looking up for the Patriots in the AFC East after beating the 3-0 Dolphins on Sunday. They still trail Miami by one game in the standings but our projections give New England a favorable 69% chance to win their 10th straight AFC East title, compared to Miami’s 22% shot.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Chicago	NFC North	42.2%	66.8%	24.6%
New England	AFC East	56.3%	76.8%	20.5%
Baltimore	AFC North	53.1%	71.5%	18.4%
Cincinnati	AFC North	43.7%	59.0%	15.3%
New Orleans	NFC South	53.8%	68.5%	14.7%

Three of the top five playoff odds gainers this week failed to make the playoffs last year (Chicago, Baltimore, and Cincinnati). It’s still very early, but it looks like we’ll have some yearly turnover among the 12 NFL playoff teams in 2018, as usual.

As for the Patriots, who had the second biggest playoff odds increase this week, they’re trying to make the playoffs for the 16th time in 18 years.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 5, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 5 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.